Japan acknowledges overestimation of rice supply and delayed response triggered crisis

Tokyo (ANTARA) — Japan’s government has admitted that overestimating rice supply and a delayed response triggered a recent crisis, exacerbated by heatwave crop failures, increased tourist consumption, and earthquake-related hoarding. According to the Japanese government on Friday, rice shortages began to be felt around summer 2024 due to various supply and demand factors, including heatwave-induced crop failures, increased consumption by foreign tourists, and hoarding by some citizens preparing for potential major earthquakes. The official report stated: ‘Based on the assumption that rice production was sufficient, the government was not proactive in gathering information on distribution conditions, which ultimately triggered price surges.’ The scarcity prompted the government to release emergency rice reserves to alleviate public concerns and lower retail prices of the staple food. Private sector rice imports in Japan surged 95-fold year-on-year to 96,834 tonnes in 2025, leading the government to warn in its annual report that domestic production could be affected. Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries had previously forecasted declining rice demand due to a shrinking population, but this proved incorrect as a surge in foreign tourists boosted consumption. Additionally, early government warnings in summer 2024 about a potential major earthquake along the Nankai Trough along the Pacific coast prompted citizens to hoard rice. Japan experienced rice price spikes exceeding 4,000 yen (approximately $25 or Rp446,000) per 5kg at the crisis peak, with wholesale traders noting households switched to noodles and bread. The official report, approved by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet on Friday, details the current state and challenges facing the agricultural sector. The document also noted increased foreign interest in Japanese agricultural products, including rice, beef, and green tea, with food exports rising 12.8% to ¥1.70 trillion (approximately Rp189 trillion) in 2025.