It's not enough for democracy to succeed

It's not enough for democracy to succeed

Ardimas Sasdi, Staff Writer, The Jakarta Post, University of Berkeley,
California

Elections year is arriving in a few weeks, greeted with
anxiety by some and as a part of a necessary transition by
others. A long-time scholar on Indonesia, Donald K. Emmerson of
the Asia/Pacific Research Center at Stanford University, shared
his views recently on the country's struggle towards reform. The
following is excerpts of the interview with the professor, who is
writing What is Indonesia?:

Question: Politicians, experts and the public differ on how
they view Indonesia's achievements in the reform process. Your
comment?

Answer: Most prominent have been the political reforms: Four
constitutional amendments, decentralization, laws on elections,
and so on. But how will these work out in practice? That is still
unclear. Economic reforms, by comparison, have lagged. And what
about corruption? Perhaps the least progress has been made on
that front.

What are key areas that governments after Soeharto have yet to
deal with in the transition process?

One could make a list. But another response would be to note
the gap between the laws already on the books and their
implementation. It will not be easy. But doing so will be crucial
for success in the transition process.

How would the results of next year's elections affect the
process of reform?

Optimistically, one can picture a healthy concentration of
legitimacy at the top of the system, enabling decisive remedial
policies. Pessimistically, one can picture a struggle between a
popularly mandated presidency and a popularly mandated
legislature to the detriment of effective policies.

I slant toward optimism. I doubt that the next president and
the next DPR (legislature) will be eager to repeat the
circumstances in which president Abdurrahman Wahid was removed
from office.

Whatever happens, 2004 will be a "Year of Voting Frequently"
-- at least two elections (April, July) and possibly three (if a
second-round presidential vote in September becomes necessary).
Let's hope for the best.

What are the basic conditions for Indonesia to succeed with
reform and to bring the country of 220 million people out of the
current crises?

When I was in Jakarta in August, the answer I heard most often
from Indonesians was: Leadership. Could there be a whiff of
nostalgia for Soeharto's leadership in that response?

Among the multiple conditions for success in overcoming the
current difficulties, one of the most important will be the
actual performance of democratically chosen governments,
including the one scheduled to emerge from next year's elections.

It is, unfortunately, possible that democracy as a method can
succeed but wind up discredited by the failure of resulting
governments to provide security, ensure justice, reduce poverty,
and so on. And there is a sense in which the competitive
electoral process itself tends to raise public expectations as to
what can and should be done by government. But I am hopeful.

Experience of governmental transition often suggests two
options, either success and an emergence of democracy, or failure
and a return to a militaristic regime. How do you see this?

There are not "always two options" in such transitions.
Within the category "democracy" alone there are many types and
gradations. As for militarism, it is striking how much the image
and therefore potential leverage of the military has changed from
the immediate post-Soeharto period.

Could it be that by not intervening blatantly, army leaders
have built up enough credit to allow for subtler forms of
influence? Not to mention the more security-conscious atmosphere
since Sept. 11, 2001 and Oct. 12, 2002 (terrorist attacks in the
U.S. and in Bali respectively). Interesting, too, is the
increasing mention of men with army backgrounds as possible
presidential candidates next year.

But just as democracy is internally diverse, so should we
avoid putting everyone who has had an army career in a single box
labeled "militarist." I live in California. The voters of my
state just fired one governor and hired another. I may be naive,
but I hope that as governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger will not treat
complex and intractable socioeconomic problems in the same way
that the Terminator treated enemy robots!

In any case, it is far too early to predict the outcome of any
of next year's national elections in either Indonesia or the U.S.
Whatever the result, let's hope it's for the better in both
countries.