It is very difficult to convince skeptical Asians

It is very difficult to convince skeptical Asians

Richard Halloran notes that nothing the U.S. says or does
seems to convince Asians that the U.S. will remain militarily
engaged in the Asia-Pacific over the long haul

The general's briefing on American strategy in Asia was
brilliant by any measure. For the Asian defense officials,
diplomats and military officers gathered in Honolulu, the
American flashed a dazzling array of pictures, charts and maps to
deliver an overwhelming amount of information in a short time. He
ended with an articulate peroration that sought to reassure his
audience that the United States would honor its commitments in
Asia. But before the general could sit down for discussion, a
Southeast Asian diplomat blurted out: "Yes, but will you be there
when things get tough?"

For months now, Asians have become increasingly skeptical of
the U.S. commitment to Asia. Questions about U.S. intentions are
thrown up repeatedly to American political leaders, diplomats,
government officials from Washington, military officers,
scholars, journalists and even private citizens. Although the
answer is always that the U.S. intends to stay the course, it
registers but little. A senior naval officer here sighed: "There
is nothing we can do to convince them."

At the same time, Americans have begun to ask Asians, with
some asperity: "What more do you want from us?" A survey of Asian
responses shows that many don't know what they want, and those
who do, don't agree. Ambivalence is commonplace; some Asian
leaders say privately they want the U.S. to remain engaged but do
little publicly to encourage it.

Asian nations seem to divide into three categories on
attitudes towards Americans. China, North Korea and possibly
Vietnam and Myanmar want the Yankees to go home. Earlier, Beijing
urged the U.S. to maintain a balance of power in Asia. "Now,"
said a Washington official, "they have told us they want us out."

South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and Australia want the
U.S. to stay. The government in Seoul wants U.S. forces there but
many young Koreans argue that American troops only continue the
peninsula's division. In contrast, Singapore has provided access
to facilities for repairs and training with neither fanfare nor
reluctance.

The ambivalents include the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand,
Indonesia, New Zealand and India. Manila has forced the U.S. out
of bases there, Malaysia has said U.S. ships storing arms are
unwelcome, and India wants no competition in the Indian Ocean.

Altogether, this widening communications gap between Americans
and Asians does neither much good. Unless that breach is closed,
the Asian drumbeat of doubt could become a self-fulfilling
prophesy, causing a withdrawal that neither Americans nor their
Asian friends want. The rupture gives American neo-isolationists
ammunition to promote their agenda of reducing all U.S.
commitments abroad.

Mr. Clinton came to the White House with little interest or
experience in foreign affairs, least of all in Asia, and vowing
to cure America's domestic ills. His charge to Secretary of State
Warren Christopher was to keep foreign policy out of sight.

A year of fumbling, however, led the Assistant Secretary of
State for East Asian Affairs, Winston Lord, to write an incisive
memo to Mr. Christopher warning that the U.S. was in deep trouble
in Asia. The memo was leaked to the press so that it could not be
ignored.

Mr. Lord appears to have been effective. Mr. Clinton has shown
interest in the forum for Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation
(APEC). Secretary of Defense William Perry has visited China and
in January signed a military co-operation agreement with India
that Home Minister S. Chavan said would "allow us to forget the
past and improve our relationship in a new atmosphere".

The Administration transferred a Harvard scholar, Joseph Nye,
from the Central Intelligence Agency to the Pentagon last autumn
and made him responsible, among other things, for reassuring
Asians. A new strategy for East Asia was published in February.

Admiral Richard Macke, who commands U.S. forces in Asia and
the Pacific from his headquarters here, has traveled extensively
in Asia for 10 months with a top priority message: "U.S.
engagement is pervasive and persistent."

Similarly, the Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army, General Gordon
Sullivan, told officers from 35 Asian and Pacific nations here in
March: "Soon there will be about as many American soldiers
serving in the Pacific as serving in Europe."

Thus in speeches, visits and official papers, Americans have
repeated their pledge. All of that evidently has not been
persuasive, however, for several reasons:

Uncertainty: A U.S. Pacific Command analyst said: "What Asians
want from us is certainty but our political system can't give it
to them." A Japanese cartoon, for instance, showed a tidal wave
smashing up against Mt. Fuji after Republicans swept into
Congress in November.

Reductions: Despite the rhetoric, cutbacks in U.S. military
spending and deployments continue. Asians see naval and air bases
in Guam being nearly gutted and combat troop strength in Hawaii
and Alaska, which reinforces units in Asia, being cut by a third.

Ignorance: Washington officials without much knowledge of Asia
have taken over nuclear negotiations with North Korea and trade
talks with Japan, ignoring South Korean interests or advice from
Japanese hands. U.S. embassies in Asia, said one observer, are
not often consulted and have become little more than hotels for
visitors from Washington.

Thus, doubt persists and only one person could begin to
dissipate it -- the President of the United States. Mr. Clinton
will have a splendid opportunity to do so at the APEC meeting
planned for Osaka in November. In public and in private, the
President could overcome some Asian skepticism but only if he
puts the American commitment at the top of his agenda and backs
his words with hard evidence.

Richard Halloran, formerly with The New York Times as a
foreign correspondent in Asia and military correspondent in
Washington, writes about Asian security from Honolulu.