It is very difficult to convince skeptical Asians

It is very difficult to convince skeptical Asians

Richard Halloran notes that nothing the U.S. says or does seems to convince Asians that the U.S. will remain militarily engaged in the Asia-Pacific over the long haul

The general's briefing on American strategy in Asia was brilliant by any measure. For the Asian defense officials, diplomats and military officers gathered in Honolulu, the American flashed a dazzling array of pictures, charts and maps to deliver an overwhelming amount of information in a short time. He ended with an articulate peroration that sought to reassure his audience that the United States would honor its commitments in Asia. But before the general could sit down for discussion, a Southeast Asian diplomat blurted out: "Yes, but will you be there when things get tough?"

For months now, Asians have become increasingly skeptical of the U.S. commitment to Asia. Questions about U.S. intentions are thrown up repeatedly to American political leaders, diplomats, government officials from Washington, military officers, scholars, journalists and even private citizens. Although the answer is always that the U.S. intends to stay the course, it registers but little. A senior naval officer here sighed: "There is nothing we can do to convince them."

At the same time, Americans have begun to ask Asians, with some asperity: "What more do you want from us?" A survey of Asian responses shows that many don't know what they want, and those who do, don't agree. Ambivalence is commonplace; some Asian leaders say privately they want the U.S. to remain engaged but do little publicly to encourage it.

Asian nations seem to divide into three categories on attitudes towards Americans. China, North Korea and possibly Vietnam and Myanmar want the Yankees to go home. Earlier, Beijing urged the U.S. to maintain a balance of power in Asia. "Now," said a Washington official, "they have told us they want us out."

South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and Australia want the U.S. to stay. The government in Seoul wants U.S. forces there but many young Koreans argue that American troops only continue the peninsula's division. In contrast, Singapore has provided access to facilities for repairs and training with neither fanfare nor reluctance.

The ambivalents include the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, New Zealand and India. Manila has forced the U.S. out of bases there, Malaysia has said U.S. ships storing arms are unwelcome, and India wants no competition in the Indian Ocean.

Altogether, this widening communications gap between Americans and Asians does neither much good. Unless that breach is closed, the Asian drumbeat of doubt could become a self-fulfilling prophesy, causing a withdrawal that neither Americans nor their Asian friends want. The rupture gives American neo-isolationists ammunition to promote their agenda of reducing all U.S. commitments abroad.

Mr. Clinton came to the White House with little interest or experience in foreign affairs, least of all in Asia, and vowing to cure America's domestic ills. His charge to Secretary of State Warren Christopher was to keep foreign policy out of sight.

A year of fumbling, however, led the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian Affairs, Winston Lord, to write an incisive memo to Mr. Christopher warning that the U.S. was in deep trouble in Asia. The memo was leaked to the press so that it could not be ignored.

Mr. Lord appears to have been effective. Mr. Clinton has shown interest in the forum for Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). Secretary of Defense William Perry has visited China and in January signed a military co-operation agreement with India that Home Minister S. Chavan said would "allow us to forget the past and improve our relationship in a new atmosphere".

The Administration transferred a Harvard scholar, Joseph Nye, from the Central Intelligence Agency to the Pentagon last autumn and made him responsible, among other things, for reassuring Asians. A new strategy for East Asia was published in February.

Admiral Richard Macke, who commands U.S. forces in Asia and the Pacific from his headquarters here, has traveled extensively in Asia for 10 months with a top priority message: "U.S. engagement is pervasive and persistent."

Similarly, the Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army, General Gordon Sullivan, told officers from 35 Asian and Pacific nations here in March: "Soon there will be about as many American soldiers serving in the Pacific as serving in Europe."

Thus in speeches, visits and official papers, Americans have repeated their pledge. All of that evidently has not been persuasive, however, for several reasons:

Uncertainty: A U.S. Pacific Command analyst said: "What Asians want from us is certainty but our political system can't give it to them." A Japanese cartoon, for instance, showed a tidal wave smashing up against Mt. Fuji after Republicans swept into Congress in November.

Reductions: Despite the rhetoric, cutbacks in U.S. military spending and deployments continue. Asians see naval and air bases in Guam being nearly gutted and combat troop strength in Hawaii and Alaska, which reinforces units in Asia, being cut by a third.

Ignorance: Washington officials without much knowledge of Asia have taken over nuclear negotiations with North Korea and trade talks with Japan, ignoring South Korean interests or advice from Japanese hands. U.S. embassies in Asia, said one observer, are not often consulted and have become little more than hotels for visitors from Washington.

Thus, doubt persists and only one person could begin to dissipate it -- the President of the United States. Mr. Clinton will have a splendid opportunity to do so at the APEC meeting planned for Osaka in November. In public and in private, the President could overcome some Asian skepticism but only if he puts the American commitment at the top of his agenda and backs his words with hard evidence.

Richard Halloran, formerly with The New York Times as a foreign correspondent in Asia and military correspondent in Washington, writes about Asian security from Honolulu.