It is very difficult to convince skeptical Asians<\/p>\n
Richard Halloran notes that nothing the U.S. says or does
\nseems to convince Asians that the U.S. will remain militarily
\nengaged in the Asia-Pacific over the long haul<\/p>\n
The general's briefing on American strategy in Asia was
\nbrilliant by any measure. For the Asian defense officials,
\ndiplomats and military officers gathered in Honolulu, the
\nAmerican flashed a dazzling array of pictures, charts and maps to
\ndeliver an overwhelming amount of information in a short time. He
\nended with an articulate peroration that sought to reassure his
\naudience that the United States would honor its commitments in
\nAsia. But before the general could sit down for discussion, a
\nSoutheast Asian diplomat blurted out: \"Yes, but will you be there
\nwhen things get tough?\"<\/p>\n
For months now, Asians have become increasingly skeptical of
\nthe U.S. commitment to Asia. Questions about U.S. intentions are
\nthrown up repeatedly to American political leaders, diplomats,
\ngovernment officials from Washington, military officers,
\nscholars, journalists and even private citizens. Although the
\nanswer is always that the U.S. intends to stay the course, it
\nregisters but little. A senior naval officer here sighed: \"There
\nis nothing we can do to convince them.\"<\/p>\n
At the same time, Americans have begun to ask Asians, with
\nsome asperity: \"What more do you want from us?\" A survey of Asian
\nresponses shows that many don't know what they want, and those
\nwho do, don't agree. Ambivalence is commonplace; some Asian
\nleaders say privately they want the U.S. to remain engaged but do
\nlittle publicly to encourage it.<\/p>\n
Asian nations seem to divide into three categories on
\nattitudes towards Americans. China, North Korea and possibly
\nVietnam and Myanmar want the Yankees to go home. Earlier, Beijing
\nurged the U.S. to maintain a balance of power in Asia. \"Now,\"
\nsaid a Washington official, \"they have told us they want us out.\"<\/p>\n
South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and Australia want the
\nU.S. to stay. The government in Seoul wants U.S. forces there but
\nmany young Koreans argue that American troops only continue the
\npeninsula's division. In contrast, Singapore has provided access
\nto facilities for repairs and training with neither fanfare nor
\nreluctance.<\/p>\n
The ambivalents include the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand,
\nIndonesia, New Zealand and India. Manila has forced the U.S. out
\nof bases there, Malaysia has said U.S. ships storing arms are
\nunwelcome, and India wants no competition in the Indian Ocean.<\/p>\n
Altogether, this widening communications gap between Americans
\nand Asians does neither much good. Unless that breach is closed,
\nthe Asian drumbeat of doubt could become a self-fulfilling
\nprophesy, causing a withdrawal that neither Americans nor their
\nAsian friends want. The rupture gives American neo-isolationists
\nammunition to promote their agenda of reducing all U.S.
\ncommitments abroad.<\/p>\n
Mr. Clinton came to the White House with little interest or
\nexperience in foreign affairs, least of all in Asia, and vowing
\nto cure America's domestic ills. His charge to Secretary of State
\nWarren Christopher was to keep foreign policy out of sight.<\/p>\n
A year of fumbling, however, led the Assistant Secretary of
\nState for East Asian Affairs, Winston Lord, to write an incisive
\nmemo to Mr. Christopher warning that the U.S. was in deep trouble
\nin Asia. The memo was leaked to the press so that it could not be
\nignored.<\/p>\n
Mr. Lord appears to have been effective. Mr. Clinton has shown
\ninterest in the forum for Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation
\n(APEC). Secretary of Defense William Perry has visited China and
\nin January signed a military co-operation agreement with India
\nthat Home Minister S. Chavan said would \"allow us to forget the
\npast and improve our relationship in a new atmosphere\".<\/p>\n
The Administration transferred a Harvard scholar, Joseph Nye,
\nfrom the Central Intelligence Agency to the Pentagon last autumn
\nand made him responsible, among other things, for reassuring
\nAsians. A new strategy for East Asia was published in February.<\/p>\n
Admiral Richard Macke, who commands U.S. forces in Asia and
\nthe Pacific from his headquarters here, has traveled extensively
\nin Asia for 10 months with a top priority message: \"U.S.
\nengagement is pervasive and persistent.\"<\/p>\n
Similarly, the Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army, General Gordon
\nSullivan, told officers from 35 Asian and Pacific nations here in
\nMarch: \"Soon there will be about as many American soldiers
\nserving in the Pacific as serving in Europe.\"<\/p>\n
Thus in speeches, visits and official papers, Americans have
\nrepeated their pledge. All of that evidently has not been
\npersuasive, however, for several reasons:<\/p>\n
Uncertainty: A U.S. Pacific Command analyst said: \"What Asians
\nwant from us is certainty but our political system can't give it
\nto them.\" A Japanese cartoon, for instance, showed a tidal wave
\nsmashing up against Mt. Fuji after Republicans swept into
\nCongress in November.<\/p>\n
Reductions: Despite the rhetoric, cutbacks in U.S. military
\nspending and deployments continue. Asians see naval and air bases
\nin Guam being nearly gutted and combat troop strength in Hawaii
\nand Alaska, which reinforces units in Asia, being cut by a third.<\/p>\n
Ignorance: Washington officials without much knowledge of Asia
\nhave taken over nuclear negotiations with North Korea and trade
\ntalks with Japan, ignoring South Korean interests or advice from
\nJapanese hands. U.S. embassies in Asia, said one observer, are
\nnot often consulted and have become little more than hotels for
\nvisitors from Washington.<\/p>\n
Thus, doubt persists and only one person could begin to
\ndissipate it -- the President of the United States. Mr. Clinton
\nwill have a splendid opportunity to do so at the APEC meeting
\nplanned for Osaka in November. In public and in private, the
\nPresident could overcome some Asian skepticism but only if he
\nputs the American commitment at the top of his agenda and backs
\nhis words with hard evidence.<\/p>\n
Richard Halloran, formerly with The New York Times as a
\nforeign correspondent in Asia and military correspondent in
\nWashington, writes about Asian security from Honolulu.<\/p>",
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