Israel–US War Against Iran Amid Global Recession Risks: Is Gold the Last Bastion?

The United States and Israel’s attack on Iran has placed the world under the shadow of recession. In this context, commodities such as gold are considered important investment instruments for investors worldwide. The tension is not merely a conventional military conflict but a real threat to global economic stability that has only recently begun to breathe a sigh of relief. In his latest report titled CIO Market Pulse, DBS Chief Investment Officer Hou Wey Fook says the world is now facing a situation described as a war above diplomacy. One of the greatest concerns highlighted is the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He says this route is the energy lifeline of the world, servicing around one-fifth of global crude oil and LNG supply. “If a total closure occurs, oil prices could surge to around $100 to $150 per barrel,” the report states. He adds that this energy price surge is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it will trigger high global inflation expectations. On the other hand, it will pin the hands of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve (The Fed), leaving it with little room to cut interest rates. Ultimately, this condition makes global recession risks unavoidable. Amid the gloom of geopolitics, Wey Fook says the US banking sector has actually posted stellar performance. Throughout 2025, the net income of US banks rose to a record $295.6 billion. Wey Fook notes that this success is supported by deregulation policies during the Trump era and the rebound in merger and acquisition activity.