Israel-Iran Conflict Threatens to Push Pertamax Fuel Prices Higher

JAKARTA — The military conflict between Iran and Israel, backed by the United States, risks pushing up fuel prices in Indonesia.

Fahmy Radhi, an economist at Gadjah Mada University (UGM), said that Israel’s initial strikes on Iran would almost certainly drive up global crude oil prices.

“If the attacks target Iran, it will certainly impact oil prices significantly,” Fahmy told Kompas.com on Saturday evening, 28 February 2026.

Fahmy explained that Iran ranks among the world’s top 10 oil-producing nations. Current WTI crude oil prices stand at 67.02 US dollars per barrel.

Similar conditions occurred during previous regional conflicts last year, when Iran breached Israeli defences and US military installations in the region.

“It could go above 70 dollars per barrel or even reach 80 dollars per barrel,” he said.

Fahmy predicted that global oil prices could exceed 100 dollars per barrel if Russia, China, and North Korea become involved in the conflict.

“Under such circumstances, I predict crude oil prices could reach above 100 dollars per barrel,” he added.

Fahmy noted that Indonesia imports 1.2 million barrels of fuel daily. Pertamax and higher-grade fuel types will definitely be impacted by rising global oil prices, as their pricing is determined by global market fluctuations.

“Pertamax will certainly rise. For instance, at the current 67 dollars per barrel, according to market mechanisms, Pertamax and above will increase, both at Pertamina petrol stations and foreign-operated ones,” he explained.

In contrast, Pertalite and Solar fuel prices are set by the government.