ISEAI: Eid al-Fitr 2026 Money Circulation to Reach Rp 417 Trillion, Boosting Q1 Economy
JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The Eid al-Fitr 2026 period is projected to be the primary driver of national economic growth in the early part of the year.
A report from the Indonesia Strategic and Economic Action Institution (ISEAI) indicates that money circulation during this year’s Lebaran period could potentially reach Rp 417 trillion in an optimistic scenario.
Observer from the Indonesia Strategic and Economic Action Institution (ISEAI), Ronny P Sasmita, views Lebaran homecoming as Indonesia’s largest economic redistribution mechanism, where funds flow from cities to rural areas through consumption, remittances, and tourism.
“Lebaran serves as a crucial catalyst for national GDP growth in the early part of the year,” explained Ronny on Sunday (22/3/2026).
Ronny estimates that Indonesia’s economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 could reach 5.4 per cent to 5.5 per cent, supported by household consumption during Ramadan and Lebaran.
In terms of mobility, the number of homecomers during Lebaran 2026 is estimated to reach 143.91 million people, or around 50.6 per cent of Indonesia’s total population.
ISEAI notes a surge in toll road traffic reaching 109.65 per cent above normal conditions, with some sections experiencing extreme increases of over 200 per cent.
According to Ronny, the strong money circulation during Lebaran is driven by increased public spending.
Average spending per family is estimated to reach Rp 4.12 million, an increase of around 10 per cent compared to the previous year.
Additionally, he stated that the disbursement of Holiday Allowances (THR) from the government and private sector, totalling around Rp 189 trillion, will further strengthen public purchasing power.
Ronny assesses that the economic impact of Lebaran will be significantly felt in homecoming destinations.
Central Java is the region with the greatest potential for economic surge, in line with the arrival of more than 38 million homecomers.