Is there a new horizon?

Is there a new horizon?

The 20-year sectarian conflict in the southern Philippines may
finally come to an end if the Manila and Moro delegates now
meeting in Jakarta are as sincere and determined as they say.
There are so many reasons to be optimistic that the war for a
separate state and eventual autonomy for the Moro, which has
claimed more than 50,000 lives, will end after a final and
comprehensive solution is found.

The two sides, with Indonesia acting as host repeatedly, have
resolved 80 percent to 90 percent of the problem, and by virtue
of farsightedness and wisdom, they should arrive at the
designated destination: peace.

But, if the talks fail, the government in Manila and the
southern people led by the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF)
can be expected to wage a new war of attrition, leaving behind
the dream of a stable Philippines amid the fast changing scene of
the Asia-Pacific area. If the talks run aground, many moderate
followers of the MNLF will surely retreat into the jungle to wage
more guerrilla warfare. Such a failure would also convince the
Abu Sayaf, the Islamic Command Council, radical groups and other
militants among the Moro that their hard-line policy is justified
and should continue.

With stability and peace in the south, much could be done to
develop the country's economy. The area has a good future and the
government has made a plan to rebuild it. And because the MNLF's
leader, Misuari, is very much convinced of Manila's sincerity, he
is pretty sure to be able to make the radical Moro groups finally
accept the peace agreement.

But two problems remaining between the government and the MNLF
are crucial. The establishment of an autonomous region and the
allocation of revenues to the region are very sensitive and
complicated. The MNLF is seeking to expand Moslem autonomy from
four provinces on the southern island of Mindanao to 13 provinces
and nine cities on the main island and nearby smaller ones.

The peace talks are based on the Libyan-brokered agreement
signed in Tripoli by Philippine government delegates and Misuari
in 1976. This pact provides for Moro autonomy in the southern
Philippines. But the structure and mechanism for implementing and
enforcing autonomy are not easy to work out.

President Fidel Ramos has said that autonomy would be decided
by a plebiscite because his government respects the basic rights
and the local people should be consulted. But the MNLF is against
this method because it expects the vote to follow sectarian
lines, thus leading to their final defeat due to the fact the
south is now dominated by the 75-percent non-Moro majority.

Based on the above-mentioned contrast between calamity and a
new horizon, both parties should try very hard to make the
current meeting a success.

A solution to this problem can only be reached by the
willingness to compromise on each party's demands and the
demonstration of great tolerance. But judging by Philippine
government officials' statements, they seem to be hoping for more
sacrifice on the part of the MNLF.

Sacrifice should come from both sides and any peace pact
should leave the people in the south feeling that not only do
they have self rule, but that justice has been done.