Is El Niño the Same as the Dry Season? BMKG Provides Explanation
The dry season in 2026 in Indonesia is forecasted to be drier and longer in duration compared to normal conditions. Additionally, the El Niño phenomenon is predicted to occur in the second half of this year.
Quoting from the official BMKG website, El Niño is different from the dry season. However, when El Niño coincides with the dry season, it can make the dry season much drier.
“It must be understood that the dry season and El Niño are two different phenomena and do not always occur together. The dry season will still come every year in Indonesia. But if El Niño occurs coinciding with the dry season, then the dry season will become much drier,” said the Head of BMKG, Teuku Faisal Fathani.
El Niño is a phenomenon of warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that impacts global climate changes. In Indonesia, El Niño generally causes reduced rainfall, making the dry season longer and drier.
The 2026 Dry Season Will Be Longer
The climate conditions in 2026 have the potential to be drier than normal. Faisal mentioned indications that the dry season will arrive earlier and last longer.
He stated that the current ENSO condition is still in a neutral phase, but in the second half of 2026, it is predicted to develop towards a weak to moderate El Niño with a probability of around 50-80 percent.
In line with these conditions, up to early April 2026, the number of hotspots in Indonesia was recorded at 1,601 points, higher than the same period in previous years.
Potential for Forest and Land Fires to Increase in June
Furthermore, Faisal explained that the potential for forest and land fires is predicted to start increasing in Riau in June, then spread to Jambi and South Sumatra, and continue to West Kalimantan and South Kalimantan in the July to August period.
As a mitigation effort, BMKG continues to strengthen preventive approaches through Weather Modification Operations (OMC) using land rewetting methods. Faisal explained that when the groundwater level in peatlands begins to decline, BMKG immediately carries out weather modification to maintain humidity so that it does not easily catch fire.