Iranian War Heats Up as Oil Prices Break Above US$83 Per Barrel

Global oil prices rose again in early Thursday trading (5 March 2026) as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified. The military conflict between the United States and Iran has sparked market concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies, particularly after the region’s strategic shipping routes faced disruptions. According to Refinitiv as of 10:00 WIB, Brent crude stood at US$83.49 per barrel, up from US$81.40 a barrel a day earlier. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also strengthened to US$76.93 per barrel, up from US$74.66 per barrel on Wednesday’s session. The price rise extended the oil rally in recent days. Looking at movements since the end of February, Brent has surged from US$72.48 per barrel on 27 February to above US$83 per barrel at present. In the same period, WTI has jumped from US$67.02 to nearly US$77 per barrel, reflecting a more than 15% rally in roughly a week. The jump was driven by market concerns over potential disruptions to energy supplies from the Persian Gulf region. The US–Iran conflict is reported to be widening after US military strikes against an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka. This situation raises the risk of escalation that could affect oil production and distribution in the region. Beyond the military conflict, global energy shipping routes have also come under pressure. The Strait of Hormuz — a crucial route for almost a fifth of global energy consumption — has been reported disrupted in recent days due to heightened security risks in the area. Several tanker ships have even been held up in the Gulf as shipping activity was disrupted. Logistical disruptions have also affected production. Iraq, the second-largest oil producer within OPEC, has been reported to cut production to around 1.5 million barrels per day due to storage facility constraints and hindered export routes. This condition further tightens global oil supplies amid relatively stable demand. On the other hand, the energy market has faced disruptions in the natural gas sector. Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, is reported to have halted some gas shipments after force majeure was invoked. Normalisation of production is expected to take at least a month, adding pressure to global energy markets. Nevertheless, some analysts see the oil production disruptions in the Gulf region as potentially temporary. Several oil fields are expected to return to operation within days, while full production capacity recovery typically requires two to three weeks after logistics return to normal. However, as long as geopolitical tensions persist, volatility in global energy prices is expected to remain high.