Iran warns of global oil price surge to US$200 per barrel
Iran has warned that global oil prices could potentially surge to US$200, or approximately Rp3,380,100 (at an estimated exchange rate of Rp16,900 per US dollar), per barrel. This prediction comes following Iranian attacks on merchant vessels in the Gulf region, which have heightened geopolitical tensions and shaken global energy markets.
Iranian military forces reported that three commercial vessels came under projectile attacks whilst transiting the Gulf waters, having been deemed to have ignored directives from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps. One vessel, a Thai-flagged cargo ship, caught fire severely, forcing its crew to evacuate.
Two additional vessels also sustained damage: a Japanese-flagged container ship and a Marshall Islands-flagged cargo vessel. As a result of the attacks, three crew members have been reported missing and are believed trapped in the engine room.
This latest attack brings the total number of merchant vessels struck since the conflict began to 14, escalating concerns about maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz. This waterway represents one of the world’s most critical energy distribution routes, transporting approximately 20 per cent of global oil supply.
“Prepare yourselves for oil prices of US$200 per barrel, as oil prices depend on regional security that you have destabilised,” said Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesman for Iran’s military command, according to Business Today on Wednesday, 12 March 2026.
Tensions in the Middle East region have intensified over the past two weeks following US and Israeli aerial strikes against Iran. The conflict in the Middle East has reportedly claimed around 2,000 lives, with the majority concentrated in Iran and Lebanon.
Despite sustaining major aerial bombardment, which the Pentagon characterised as the most intense military campaign to date, Iran has continued to launch retaliatory attacks against Israel and various targets throughout the Middle East region.
US President Donald Trump has indicated that the conflict is unlikely to end in the near term. Trump has also claimed that American forces have destroyed 58 naval vessels, though he maintains that oil prices will eventually decline.
“We do not want to go too quickly, do we? We need to finish this job,” Trump stated at a public rally.