Iran vs Israel and US conflict: Gold and energy stocks poised for gains
Jakarta – Escalating conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran has reignited a global capital rotation towards commodity-based assets and safe-haven investments.
The Middle East escalation, particularly Iran’s restrictions on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—which accounts for approximately one-fifth of global oil supply and substantial natural gas volumes—has intensified market concerns over disruptions to global energy supply chains and triggered sharp increases in strategic commodity prices.
As global tensions heat up, financial markets are repositioning. Several equity sectors are poised to re-attract investor interest and present attractive trading opportunities.
Gold and precious metals stocks
Global gold prices have traded in the region of US$5,278 per troy ounce through last week’s trading on Friday, 27 February 2025. Given the intensifying geopolitical tensions this week, prices could feasibly test their peaks once again.
These conditions stand to support the performance of gold mining equities, as rising commodity prices directly expand profit margins. Gold-based equities are likely to become rotation targets whilst geopolitical tensions remain elevated, including PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM), PT Bumi Resources Mineral Tbk (BRMS), PT Archi Indonesia Tbk (ARCI), PT Hartadinata Abadi Tbk (HRTA), PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk (EMAS), and others.
Oil and gas stocks
Oil and gas equities are similarly positioned to benefit from current market conditions.
Brent crude recently breached US$72 per barrel, approaching eight-month highs. The surge follows heightened concerns over energy distribution disruptions due to escalating conflict, particularly given the Strait of Hormuz’s critical role in global oil trade.
Rising crude prices stand to catalyse positive sentiment towards oil and gas equities, particularly producers with exposure to global market-priced output and sales. So long as energy prices remain elevated, improved revenue and margin potential becomes a distinct market attraction.
Indonesian oil and gas producers include PT Medco Energi International Tbk (MEDC), PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk (ENRG), PT Pertamina Gas Negara Tbk (PGAS), PT Elnusa Tbk (ELSA), PT Rukun Raharja Tbk (RAJA), PT Raharja Energi Cepu Tbk (RATU), and others.
Coal stocks
The coal sector has also drawn fresh attention amid intensifying geopolitical tensions.
Coal prices have similarly strengthened and recently breached US$119 per tonne, marking the highest level since December 2024. Solid global demand, particularly from China as it expands coal-fired power generation capacity to maintain energy security, remains a primary support factor.
Sustained elevated prices stand to reinforce coal producer revenue and cash flow prospects, making this sector a popular choice when energy becomes market focus.
Indonesian coal producers include PT Indo Tambang Raya Tbk (ITMG), PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI), PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI), PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN), PT Dian Swastatiak Sentosa Tbk (DSSA), and PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN).
Nonetheless, production cutback risks warrant attention, as companies face internal pressure to adjust output in response to price increases; insufficient production volumes despite rising prices could ultimately dampen revenue gains.
Shipping stocks
Separately, shipping equities remain noteworthy amid the Iran versus US-Israel conflict.
Regional tensions in the Persian Gulf have driven rising logistics costs and maritime insurance premiums. Multiple shipping companies are rerouting vessels away from high-risk areas, ultimately raising freight rates.
These elevated maritime transport rates stand to benefit shipping equities, particularly those engaged in petroleum, natural gas and energy commodity transport.
Should elevated freight rates persist, revenue growth potential for this sector expands considerably.
Indonesian shipping equities listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange include PT GTS Internasional Tbk (GTSI), PT Humpuss Maritim Internasional Tbk (HUMI), PT Soechi Lines Tbk (SOCI), PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR), PT Buana Listya Tama Tbk (BULL), PT Logindo Samudramakmur Tbk (LEAD), and others.
Disclaimer: This article is a journalistic product representing the views of CNBC Indonesia Research. This analysis is not intended to encourage readers to purchase, hold, or sell products or sectors related to investors. All decisions remain the reader’s sole responsibility, and we accept no liability for any losses or gains arising from such decisions.