Iran Uses Energy as Strategic Weapon in Conflict with United States
The founder of the Haidar Alwi Institute (HAI), R. Haidar Alwi, has assessed that the United States has suffered a strategic defeat in its recent conflict with Iran. According to him, energy factors—particularly oil and its distribution routes—have become the primary determinant in the dynamics of modern warfare occurring in the Persian Gulf region.
Haidar Alwi stated that victory in modern warfare is not always determined by weapons sophistication or conventional military strength, but rather by the ability to control other strategic factors, including energy.
“In modern warfare, victory is not always determined by who possesses the most precise missiles or the most advanced fighter jets. Sometimes victory is determined by something far simpler: energy,” Haidar Alwi said in a statement in Jakarta on Wednesday, 11 March.
According to him, the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran since late February 2026 demonstrates how global energy routes can become an exceptionally effective geopolitical pressure tool.
Haidar explained that the Strait of Hormuz has become a critical juncture in the conflict. Approximately 20 per cent of the world’s daily oil supply passes through this route, making it one of the world’s most vital energy corridors.
When tensions escalate, Iran is assessed to be exploiting this strategic position by disrupting tanker traffic in the region.
“The Strait of Hormuz is the key. When conflict intensifies, Iran transforms that route into a strategic weapon that directly shakes the global energy system,” Haidar said.
He cited its direct impact on international markets. Tanker traffic passing through the strait reportedly plummeted by approximately 97 per cent. This situation nearly halted the flow of energy from the Persian Gulf region to global markets.
This situation has triggered panic in global energy markets. Oil prices surged sharply to nearly US$120 per barrel, whilst global markets experienced turbulence due to the threat of a new energy crisis.
Additionally, several energy infrastructure facilities in the Persian Gulf region have also been reported as disrupted, including Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals and oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
Haidar stated that the oil price surge has had far-reaching economic consequences worldwide. Rising energy prices have triggered global inflation, increased transportation costs, and could potentially drive up food prices and industrial production costs.
“Every oil price surge directly translates into global inflation. Transportation costs rise, food prices increase, industry is shaken, and the risk of global recession increases,” he said.
He assessed that Iran understands this strategic advantage. Although unable to match United States military power directly, Iran is assessed to be capable of pressuring the global economy through disruptions to energy routes.
“As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains unsafe, international pressure will emerge against parties deemed to be prolonging the conflict,” Haidar said.
According to him, this pressure comes from various parties, ranging from industrialised nations, global financial markets, energy companies, to international bodies concerned about global economic stability.
G7 member nations have even reportedly considered releasing strategic oil reserves to stabilise global energy markets.
Haidar assessed that this situation prompted the United States to begin signalling de-escalation of the conflict. The United States President’s statement that the conflict was nearly concluded, he said, also triggered a decline in global oil prices.
“This shows that in this conflict, not only the battlefield determines outcomes, but also the global energy market,” he said.
Haidar added that Iran’s strategy is not to win the war militarily, but to increase the economic cost of the conflict until it becomes too expensive to continue.
“In a war like this, what determines the outcome is not who fires the last missile, but who can make war too expensive to continue,” Haidar Alwi said.
Additionally, a member of Commission VII of the Indonesian House of Representatives (DPR) from the Golkar Party, Gandung Pardiman, has urged the Government to anticipate escalation of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.
An energy expert from Padjadjaran University (Unpad), Yayan Satyakti, assessed that global oil prices still have the potential to surge to as high as US$130 per barrel.
Iran has stated it will not allow the United States, Israel, or their allies to receive oil supplies from the Middle East region whilst the conflict continues.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has called on the G7 to release strategic oil reserves to dampen the price surge resulting from the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.