Iran–US Conflict Serves as Reminder of Indonesia's Energy Import Dependence

Jakarta, Indonesia – A resurgence of geopolitical conflict between Iran and the United States has triggered turmoil in global energy markets and heightened worldwide economic uncertainty.

This situation simultaneously serves as a reminder of the vulnerability of developing nations, including Indonesia, which remain dependent on the stability of international energy prices and the smooth functioning of global supply chains to sustain economic growth.

A report from the Institute for Economic and Social Research at the Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI), titled “The Impact of Iran–US Conflict on Indonesia’s Economy,” highlights how this conflict has wide-ranging effects through various transmission channels, ranging from the real sector through to financial and domestic fiscal markets.

The escalation of conflict beginning in late February 2026 triggered military responses and disruptions to strategically important global energy distribution routes. Iran reportedly closed shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy transportation chokepoints. Approximately 25 percent of global oil trade passes through this route daily.

Beyond crude oil, the Strait of Hormuz also serves as an important distribution route for liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and fertilisers.

These disruptions have rapidly affected global energy markets. Brent crude oil prices have risen to exceed $90 per barrel.

During the period from 27 February to 9 March 2026, oil prices rose approximately 27 percent to $91.8 per barrel. Meanwhile, gas prices increased more sharply, reaching approximately 55.8 euros per megawatt-hour, or a rise of 74 percent.

This situation demonstrates how geopolitical conflict in the Middle East can directly trigger volatility in global energy commodity prices, which then has the potential to place pressure on energy-importing nations such as Indonesia.

Of the total approximately 20 million barrels of oil transported daily by sea, only around 4.2 million barrels can be rerouted through land routes in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

For Indonesia, dependence on energy imports remains quite high. In January 2026, total imports of oil and gas reached approximately $891.8 million or around 150.25 trillion rupiah.

Of this amount, imports from Iran were relatively modest, at approximately $0.42 million.