Iran–Israel–US tensions spark surge in gold prices, new highs on the horizon

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are once again drawing global market attention. The military conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran is pushing investors to seek safe-haven assets such as gold, as uncertainty rises. Citing a report from The Economic Times, analysts say gold prices could test new highs if the conflict escalates further and global risks widen. Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and Forex.com, expects additional demand for safe-haven assets. ‘There will be additional demand for safe haven, which could push gold back to the US$5,500 level and even potentially exceed the January peak near US$5,600,’ he said, as quoted by The Economic Times, on Wednesday, 5 March 2026. Assuming an exchange rate of Rp16,800 per US dollar, the US$5,500 per troy ounce level is equivalent to about Rp92.4 million, while US$5,600 per troy ounce equates to about Rp94.08 million per troy ounce. However, he warned of potential price limits. ‘The gains could be capped if the US dollar strengthens, particularly if oil prices stay high,’ he said. Hugo Pascal, a precious metals trader at InProved, believes gold is likely to be the biggest beneficiary when the markets reopen. ‘Gold is likely to be the main beneficiary when the markets reopen, as investors seek protection amid geopolitical uncertainty.’ Meanwhile, Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, foresees high volatility in the near term. ‘We expect gold and silver to remain highly volatile, with a likely significant opening higher as geopolitical tensions dominate market sentiment.’ ANZ analyst Soni Kumari also notes that initial gold price reactions are likely positive, though short-term corrections may still occur depending on the evolution of the conflict. Beyond geopolitics, markets are also watching US economic data releases such as retail sales and employment. The combination of conflict risk and the economic agenda could make gold price movements even more volatile. If the Israel-US and Iran tensions continue to escalate, the prospect of gold breaking above Rp94 million per troy ounce becomes more likely. But if tensions ease and the US dollar strengthens, a corrective phase remains a risk investors should anticipate.