Iran-Israel-US Conflict Impacts Market: Here Are 6 Stock Recommendations to Leverage

Escalating tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States following a significant military exchange on 28 February have triggered significant economic concerns, extending beyond political conflicts to pose risks to global markets. The Indonesian stock market has responded with a risk-off pattern, as investors reduce exposure to riskier emerging markets, including Indonesia.

Market analyst and Founder of Republik Investor, Hendra Wardana, warned that the Indonesian capital market faces pressure from two directions. Foreign investors are likely to reduce their exposure to emerging market equities like Indonesia, potentially triggering capital outflows. Additionally, surging energy prices, particularly crude oil, pose inflationary risks through import costs, which could compress profit margins for listed companies.

The Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (IHSG) is expected to face downward pressure, potentially testing the classical support level of 8,133. Should this level break, the psychological support at 8,000 would become the next target, with the nearest resistance at 8,300.

However, commodity-based sectors may provide support amid this uncertainty. Rising gold and oil prices present opportunities for commodity stocks. Wardana identified several specific recommendations: MDKA with a target price of 3,900, and ANTM with potential to reach 4,500. In the energy sector, ELSA is predicted to reach 900, ENRG has a target price of 1,900, and AKRA could serve as a speculative buy at 1,400. SOCI, benefiting from increased energy transport activity and tariffs, merits attention as a trading buy with a target of 750.

For retail investors, disciplined selectivity remains paramount. Aggressive investors may find opportunities in commodity sectors with strict risk management, whilst conservative investors should maintain a wait-and-see approach whilst monitoring geopolitical developments and foreign fund flows. Wardana emphasised that success in the current environment requires the ability to read sector rotation and maintain controlled risk exposure.