Iran–Israel–US conflict could trigger the largest oil crisis in history, analysts predict

Analysts warn that sustained disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger the world’s largest oil supply shock in modern times. S&P Global Energy’s energy crude oil markets team, led by Jim Burkhard, notes that the current situation could develop into a historically large energy crisis. S&P Global Energy Commodities at Sea data show that on 1 March only five oil tankers were transiting the Strait of Hormuz, versus the normal average of around 60 tankers per day. This drastic reduction signals a potential major disruption to global energy distribution. In the first two months of this year alone, around 20.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products were shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, with 82 percent of them heading to Asian markets. In addition, about 18 percent of global LNG supply also passes through this strategic route. ‘Losing a large portion of energy supply could trigger financial and economic shocks,’ the analysis said, as cited by Rigzone, on Wednesday, 5 March 2026. The worst-case scenario, if tankers cease crossing the Strait of Hormuz, could place up to 15 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products at risk. The exact amount would depend on how much pipeline capacity in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates can be used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Even a mid-range disruption, around seven to eight million barrels per day, is described as larger than the volumes affected when Russia invaded Ukraine or when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990. Before the conflict, S&P Global Energy projected global oil production would exceed demand by 1.4 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026 and by about 1 million bpd on average for the year. However, the report emphasises that reduced tanker traffic and targeted energy infrastructure could shift the market from a surplus to a substantial deficit, keeping prices high to ration scarce supply and curb demand.