Iran-Israel Conflict Threatens IHSG; Check Commodity Sector Shares with Profit Potential
JAKARTA - The conflict between Iran and Israel, which has drawn the United States into the fray, has the potential to significantly shake global financial markets. The Indonesian Composite Stock Index (IHSG) is threatened with downward pressure due to risk-off sentiment, yet amid the shadow of correction, several sectors are considered to have profit-making potential.
Capital markets observer and founder of Republik Investor, Hendra Wardana, stated that the escalating conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States is no longer merely a political issue but has entered the realm of global economic risk.
“The escalating conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States is not just a political issue, but has already entered the realm of global economic risk. The market has responded directly with risk-off sentiment. Global investors tend to exit risky assets and seek protection in safe-haven assets,” said Hendra when contacted by Kompas.com on Sunday (1 March 2026).
One of the most critical focal points drawing market attention is the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic corridor is one of the world’s busiest oil distribution routes, with approximately 30 per cent of global oil trade passing through the region.
If conflict escalation disrupts tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have the potential to surge higher as the market reassesses supply risks.
Rising energy prices risk spilling over into global inflation, triggering currency weakness in developing nations and affecting the policy direction of central bank interest rates in many countries. In Indonesia’s context, pressure on the IHSG can emerge from two sides simultaneously.
“For Indonesia’s capital market, pressure can come from two sides. First, the potential for capital outflows as foreign investors reduce their exposure in emerging markets. Second, the risk of import inflation resulting from surging energy prices,” explained Hendra.
If oil prices remain elevated, corporate operating costs will increase and profit margins risk being eroded.