Iran-Israel Conflict: Global Gold Prices Predicted to Strengthen
Global gold prices are forecast to continue advancing in trading on Tuesday, 10 March 2026, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and surging energy prices that are triggering global market concerns.
Dupoin Futures analyst Andy Nugraha noted that current gold movements continue to display a bullish tendency, despite experiencing pressure early in the week. “In prior trading, gold prices trimmed some losses but remain over 1.5 per cent below opening prices,” Andy stated in a written statement on Tuesday, 10 March 2026.
He attributed this pressure to disruptions in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which have triggered a surge in global crude oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil surged more than 30 per cent to approach US$113 per barrel levels.
According to him, this surge has had widespread impact on global commodity markets, including gold. Currently, gold is trading around US$5,090 per troy ounce.
From a technical perspective, Andy noted that the gold strengthening trend remains fairly solid. The combination of candlestick patterns and moving average indicators on the one-hour timeframe indicated that buying interest continues to dominate the market despite sustained volatility. “The price structure that has formed indicates that bullish momentum remains intact,” he said.
Based on Dupoin Futures analysis, if buying pressure continues, gold prices have the potential to rise towards resistance levels around US$5,245 per troy ounce. This level represents the nearest target that markets may test in the near term.
However, markets must also remain vigilant about potential corrections should momentum weaken. In this scenario, support levels are estimated to be around US$5,126 per troy ounce.
From a fundamental perspective, gold strengthening is primarily supported by escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East. In Asian trading sessions, gold was recorded strengthening slightly around US$5,140 per troy ounce.
The conflict in the region has now entered its eleventh day, with military strikes continuing across several areas, including central Iran and Beirut. The situation has intensified following reports that the Strait of Hormuz—a vital global energy trading route—remains effectively closed. This strait is known to be the route for approximately one-fifth of global oil distribution.
The closure of this strategic route has also forced several oil producers in the Persian Gulf region, including Saudi Arabia, to reduce production. This situation has created concerns regarding global energy supply and prompted investors to shift towards safe-haven assets such as gold.
Nevertheless, according to Andy, the potential for gold gains is also overshadowed by US dollar strengthening. Rising oil prices have the potential to increase inflation and prompt the US central bank to maintain elevated interest rates for longer. This typically works against gold since the precious metal does not provide returns like interest-bearing instruments.
The US Dollar Index recorded an increase of around 0.26 per cent to level 99.11, marking the highest position in nearly three months. This dollar strengthening has the potential to limit gold price gains in the near term.
Additionally, market participants are awaiting the release of US inflation data through the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for Wednesday. Core inflation is estimated to reach 2.4 per cent annually, whilst core inflation is projected to be around 2.5 per cent.
Despite facing several headwind factors, Dupoin Futures believes gold still has opportunities to continue its strengthening trend in the near term, given the high level of global geopolitical uncertainty. “If inflation data comes in higher than expected, the US dollar has the potential to strengthen further and may suppress gold prices,” Andy said.