Iran Conflict Threatens to Undermine Trump's Position Ahead of US Midterm Elections
President of the United States Donald Trump is beginning to face domestic political pressure after the conflict with Iran triggered global economic upheaval. The war involving the US and Israel is assessed as having the potential to backfire on Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the US midterm elections.
This concern has emerged because the Middle Eastern conflict has triggered surging energy prices. Crude oil prices even briefly breached $100 (approximately 1.69 million rupiah) per barrel for the first time in several years, as supply disruptions from the war and disruptions to global energy trade routes have taken effect.
Todd Belt, a professor of political management at George Washington University, stated that foreign policy typically does not significantly influence midterm elections in the US. However, the impact could differ if the conflict directly strikes the economic conditions of the general public.
“Usually foreign policy does not play a major role in midterm elections, except where there is a direct connection to how it worsens people’s lives,” Belt said, as cited by AFP on Tuesday (10 March 2026).
According to Belt, rising energy prices could become an important factor because they have the potential to trigger increases in the cost of living for American citizens. If voters see prices for goods rising faster than their incomes, this situation could trigger negative sentiment towards the incumbent government.
This situation has the potential to become a problem for Trump and the Republican Party, which previously secured substantial support in the elections due to public dissatisfaction with economic conditions. Now, rising energy prices risk becoming an issue that political opponents can exploit ahead of the elections.
Midterm Elections and Presidential Removal
In fact, midterm elections in America are general elections held during a president’s term in office. Midterm elections are often considered a “referendum” on the performance of the sitting president, for example on policy decisions by Donald Trump or other presidents.
In many cases in the US, the president’s party often loses seats in Congress during midterm elections because voters want to balance power. Although it cannot remove the president, midterm elections can weaken the president’s power if his party loses control of Congress.
Opposition victory in midterm elections can pave the way for an impeachment process. However, the president is only truly removed if the Senate votes him guilty with a two-thirds majority.
In the US itself, the midterm elections will take place on 6 November. In several recent polls following the escalation of the conflict with Iran, Trump’s approval rating has fallen to its lowest point at 38 per cent with 59 per cent disapproving, according to YouGov and The Economist.
Trump Refuses to Budge
Meanwhile, Trump continues to defend his military policy towards Iran. In posts on his social media, he called the increase in oil prices “a very small price to pay” for global security and stopping the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons.
However, some observers believe the conflict could worsen public sentiment if energy prices continue to rise. Moreover, rising fuel prices are a sensitive issue for American voters, especially ahead of the midterm elections that will determine the balance of political power in Congress.
Because of this, several analysts believe the safest course of action for the Trump administration is to seek a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. If the war drags on and energy prices remain high, the Iran conflict has the potential to transform from a geopolitical strategy into a major political risk for Trump domestically.
Citing CNN International, a former senior government official stated that current market conditions could force the White House to reconsider the scale of military operations in the region on Monday. “If this situation continues or worsens, there will be a need to re-evaluate the operations currently underway,” the official said.
In his latest announcement, citing AFP, Trump stated that the war against Iran will soon end and predicted that global oil prices will fall in the near term. He said “we are making great progress towards achieving our military objectives”.