Investors Prepare: Key Economic Sentiment Indicators at the Start of March 2026

Jakarta — As the first week of March 2026 approaches, market participants and investors will face a packed schedule of macroeconomic data releases from both domestic and global exchanges.

The scheduled data releases this week play a crucial role as leading indicators for assessing the direction of central bank monetary policy, economic growth prospects, and cross-border capital flows.

Primary attention will focus on US employment indicators, evaluations of manufacturing activity in major economies, and releases of inflation rates and external stability data from Indonesia.

February 2026 Inflation Data

At the start of the week, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) will release Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February 2026. In retrospect, year-on-year inflation in January 2026 accelerated to 3.55%, rising from December’s 2.92% level. This represents the highest point since May 2023 and has breached the upper limit of Bank Indonesia’s 1.5%-3.5% target range.

The significant increase in January was primarily driven by anomalies in the housing sector, which recorded 11.93% annual inflation compared to 1.62% in December.

This spike was largely caused by a low base effect resulting from electricity tariff discounts provided at the beginning of 2025, rather than purely reflecting a surge in real demand.

Nevertheless, price pressures remain persistent in food groups (1.54%), healthcare (1.62%), and restaurants (1.36%). Meanwhile, core inflation, reflecting consumer purchasing power, rose to 2.45%, the highest in nine months.

For the February data release, market participants will scrutinise whether inflation can return to within Bank Indonesia’s target, or whether a permanent trend of elevated prices will form, potentially constraining future monetary policy easing.

January 2026 Trade Balance

Indonesia’s international trade performance will again come under scrutiny. At the close of 2025, the trade balance recorded a surplus of USD 2.52 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of USD 2.45 billion.

This achievement was accompanied by a surge in export performance, which grew 11.64% year-on-year to USD 26.35 billion, marking the fastest growth rate since February 2025. This export growth reversed the 6.6% contraction that occurred in November.

On the import side, overseas purchases also recorded a sharp increase of 10.81%, well above market expectations that projected a 0.7% decline. This import increase was driven by a 1.71% rise in oil and gas imports and a 12.46% surge in non-oil and gas imports to USD 20.48 billion.

Throughout 2025, Indonesia successfully recorded a total surplus of USD 41.05 billion. The release of January 2026 trade balance data this week will provide important signals about export performance amid global commodity price fluctuations and serve as an indicator of raw material demand from the domestic manufacturing industry at the start of the year.

February 2026 Foreign Exchange Reserves Position Update

Bank Indonesia will also release the foreign exchange reserves (forex) position for the end of February 2026. At the end of January, the forex position stood at USD 154.6 billion, down from USD 156.5 billion at the end of December 2025.

This decline was confirmed by Bank Indonesia as resulting from government foreign debt payment obligations and intervention to stabilise the rupiah amid heightened global financial market uncertainty.

Despite the decline, the January forex position still equated to 6.3 months of import financing, or 6.1 months of imports plus foreign debt payments, which remains well above the international adequacy standard (approximately 3 months of imports).

Investors will examine February forex data to evaluate the extent of the central bank’s ammunition in maintaining external sector resilience, preserving macroeconomic stability, and shielding the rupiah from potential capital outflows.

February 2026 Labour Market Dynamics

One of the most important indicators from the United States at the end of this week is the release of employment data (Non-Farm Payrolls / NFP) and the US unemployment rate for February 2026.

In January, the US economy surprisingly added 130,000 jobs, far exceeding the consensus projection of only 70,000 new jobs and marking the highest figure since December 2024. Job additions were concentrated in healthcare (82,000), social assistance (42,000), and construction (33,000).

Conversely, the federal government sector lost 34,000 jobs due to delayed resignations, while the financial activities sector declined by 22,000 jobs. Notably, analysts should observe the massive downward revision of total job growth throughout 2025, which was cut to just +181,000 from the previous report of +584,000.

On the other hand, the US unemployment rate in January fell slightly to 4.3% from 4.4% in the previous month, alongside an increase in the labour force.

The February NFP release will serve as the primary proxy for the Federal Reserve in assessing whether the US labour market is truly overheating or experiencing structural slowdown, which will directly dictate the path of the Federal Funds Rate in the coming quarter.

February 2026 Manufacturing and Services Index (ISM PMI)

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey release will provide a comprehensive picture of the real sector conditions in the US. In January, the ISM Manufacturing PMI surprised by expanding to 52.6 from 47.9 in December, well above market estimates of 48.5.

This figure marks the first expansion in the manufacturing sector in 12 months, signalling a potential shift from contraction to recovery in America’s industrial base.