Investment and Exports Drive Kepri Economy, Household Consumption Still Lagging
batampos - The structure of Kepulauan Riau (Kepri)’s economic growth remains anchored in investment and export performance. In the midst of relatively high economic momentum, household consumption has not shown enough driving force to balance growth more evenly. The Head of the BI Representative Office for Kepulauan Riau, Rony Widijarto, said this picture is reflected in the components of the regional gross domestic product (GRDP) by expenditure and sector.
“Generally, Kepri’s growth remains supported by investment and a net export position. Household consumption has not been as strong as the overall economy,” Rony said during a media roundtable at BI Kepri’s office on Tuesday, 3 March.
According to him, this condition differs from national trends, where household consumption tends to rise in tandem with economic growth.
“In Kepri, economic acceleration is driven more by externally-based sectors,” he explained.
The mining and processing sectors are the main pillars. In 2025, Kepri’s economic growth was also propelled by new oil and gas (migas) field projects entering production (onstream).
Mining and processing activity, he said, has shown positive trends in recent periods. A number of migas projects strengthen these prospects. Migas field Forel and Terubuk began operating on 16 May 2025 with production of around 20 thousand barrels of oil per day and 60 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCFD).
“The fields are targeted to reach full capacity by the end of 2025,” he said.
In addition, the WNTS–Pemping pipeline project is scheduled for completion in Q1 2026. West Natuna Exploration Ltd. targets production by the end of 2027, while KUFPEC Anambas aims for onstream in Q1 2027.
With these developments, BI estimates the mining and processing sectors will remain the growth motor of Kepri’s economy in the medium term. However, Rony emphasised the importance of strengthening domestic consumption so that the growth structure is more balanced and sustainable.
“Strengthening household consumption is needed so growth is not overly dependent on external factors,” he said.
Amid the imbalanced growth structure, BI’s Consumer Confidence survey shows optimism among the public. Kepri’s Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) for Q1 2026—through February—stood at 137.00, higher than in the previous period.
IKK is an indicator of households’ perceptions of current economic conditions and future expectations. A score above 100 indicates that respondents are optimistic.
The rise in the IKK was supported by two main components, namely the Economic Condition Index (IKE) at 145.34 and the Consumer Expectation Index (IEK) at 128.67.
According to Rony, this improvement signals a recovery in confidence after it slowed in Q2 last year due to reciprocal tariff policies and budget efficiency.
The momentum of National Religious Holiday (HBKN) celebrations also contributed to improved perceptions and expectations among consumers at the beginning of the year.
“The survey involved 200 households as respondents and is one of BI’s references in monitoring purchasing power and people’s perceptions of the economy,” he said.