Indonesia's Exports Minimally Affected by Middle East Conflict, Energy Prices Pose Main Threat

Indonesia Eximbank assesses that the direct impact of the Middle East conflict on Indonesia’s trade remains limited. This assessment is based on the small proportion of Indonesia’s trade with the region. “The main risk actually emerges through indirect channels, particularly rising energy prices, exchange rate volatility, and slowdowns in industrial activity in major trading partner countries that could affect Indonesia’s export dynamics,” said Head of Indonesia Eximbank Institute Rini Satriani on Wednesday (18/3/2026). Imports from the region are around 3.9% and dominated by energy commodities. This structure indicates relatively small direct exposure. Most of Indonesia’s exports flow to other regions. East Asia absorbs 36.4%, Southeast Asia 20.8%, North America 11.5%, South Asia 9.6%, and Western Europe 5.7%. “We are carefully monitoring the dynamics in the Middle East region, including the security of strategic shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the world’s main arteries for energy trade,” she stated.