Indonesia's Economy in Q1 2026, BI Teaser: Still Growing Above 5 Percent

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - Bank Indonesia (BI) expects economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 to remain above 5 percent amid global uncertainties.

Senior Deputy Governor of BI, Destry Damayanti, stated that the central bank projects national economic growth to be around 5.2 percent in the first quarter of this year.

Nevertheless, this projection is lower than the actual economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, which reached 5.39 percent.

“The economy in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to still grow above 5 percent. We also project it to be above that at 5.2 percent,” she said during the Central Banking Forum 2026 in Jakarta on Monday (13/4/2026).

However, the impact of the Middle East war still needs to be anticipated through policy synergy between the government and BI.

She elaborated that the strength of the domestic economy comes from several indicators, both from the consumption and production sides.

From the consumption side, BI recorded an increase in the Current Income Index of the Community (IPSI), particularly among middle to upper-income groups.

BI noted that the IPSI for March 2026 rose to 129.2 from the previous month’s 125.

It is even higher than March 2025, which was only 121.5.

Based on expenditure groups, consumer confidence in current income was recorded to have increased across all groups, with the highest index of 135.9 for the group above Rp 5 million.

However, Destry reminded that low-income groups remain a primary concern as they are more vulnerable to economic pressures.

“We are still grateful to have a sufficiently strong domestic economy. And if we look at the current income index here, I’m only using two indicators,” she said.

Meanwhile, from the production side, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) output indicator is also expected to increase.

This signals that production in the future has the potential to rise, in line with improving business expectations.