Indonesia's 2026 dry season expected to intensify

BMKG Director for Climate Change Fachri Rajab said the season may also arrive earlier and last longer.

“It should be underlined that this means drier than average, not the most severe dry season in 30 years,” he said during a discussion event in Jakarta on Tuesday.

Rajab addressed public speculation describing the 2026 dry season as “extreme,” including labels such as “Godzilla dry season” or “Godzilla El Niño.”

He said BMKG does not use such terms, describing them as inaccurate and exaggerated.

He added that although this year is expected to be drier than 2023, the dry seasons of 1997 and 2015 were far more severe.

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The 2026 dry season is influenced by the El Niño phenomenon, expected to emerge in late April or early May, which may reduce rainfall across Indonesia.

“El Niño and the dry season are two distinct phenomena. While El Niño influences the intensity of the dry season, it does not cause the dry season itself,” he explained.

He added that Indonesia will experience a dry season every year due to its tropical climate, regardless of El Niño.

“As this year’s dry season coincides with El Niño, rainfall is expected to be lower. Currently, El Niño remains in the weak category,” he said.

BMKG analysis suggests the intensity could strengthen to a moderate level in the third quarter of 2026, particularly between August and October.

Rajab urged the public to take the information seriously without overreacting.

He stressed that cross-sector collaboration and community mitigation efforts are crucial to ensuring clean water availability and sustaining agriculture and plantations.

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Translator: M Riezko, Raka Adji