Indonesian Listed Companies Could Profit Amid War and Global Energy Crisis Threats

Indonesian listed issuers could profit amid war and threats of a global energy crisis. Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Oil and gas and coal stocks look poised to benefit following the stoppage of the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) production facilities owned by QatarEnergy after an attack by Iran. The Ras Laffan complex, operated by the company, accounts for around 20% of global LNG supply. The shutdown is described as unprecedented, raising concerns about global energy supply stability and causing volatility in international markets. The impact was immediate on energy markets, where European gas futures prices surged significantly. The increase was the biggest since the 2022 energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with prices briefly rising by about 54% in a single day. On Wednesday night (4 March 2026), European gas futures were down more than 11% to €47.50 per MWh before settling at €48.77 per MWh, after earlier recording a near 60% rise across two consecutive trading days. Beyond natural gas, coal prices also jumped sharply, rising to US$138 per tonne on Tuesday (3 March 2026), the highest since November 2024. Coal prices were also reacting to the news of the LNG production halt at Qatar Energy, given coal’s role as an energy substitute, boosting demand amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Because oil and gas and coal prices have recovered, we identify several emitters that could benefit, such as PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC), PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk (ENRG), PT Rukun Raharja Tbk (RAJA), and PT Raharja Energi Cepu Tbk (RATU). In addition, PT Pertamina Gas Negara Tbk (PGAS) could also benefit as a major domestic LNG player. The company owns a subsidiary focused on LNG, namely PGN LNG Indonesia. Its main business includes domestic and international LNG trading, management of the Lampung FSRU, revitalisation of the Arun LNG Tank, and developing small-scale infrastructure to meet industrial and smelter demand. Meanwhile, for coal stocks we are looking at issuers still in a safe zone as they are shielded from significant cuts under the 2026 coal production RKAB quotas, which will be decided at the end of March. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) confirms not all companies will face RKAB 2026 quota reductions. There are exemptions for companies holding PKP2B Generation 1 Agreements and state-owned enterprises holding Mining Business Permits (IUP). Director General of Minerals and Coal at the Ministry of ESDM, Tri Winarno, explained that these groups are deemed to contribute significantly to state revenue, both through royalties and profit sharing, so production will be maintained. The PKP2B Generation 1 holders that have converted to IUPK include: