Indonesian coffee output may drop 30 percent

Indonesian coffee output may drop 30 percent

LONDON (Reuter): A consensus is emerging among coffee exporters that the Indonesian robusta coffee crop is at least 30 percent lower in 1997/98 than a year earlier, UK trade house E D & F Man said yesterday.

Total 1996/97 production, including arabicas, is estimated at 7.0 million bags, so a 30 percent fall in robusta production would cut the current crop to below 5.0 million bags, it said in its June/July coffee report.

Internal consumption totaled 1.8 million.

Man said the size of the apparent fall in Indonesian production has taken many exporters by surprise.

However, the actual pattern of rainfall in Indonesia during 1996 and early 1997 appeared to have been singularly bad for coffee.

Excessive rainfall during the June-November flowering period damaged the flowers and the young cherries while a dry spell from January to March damaged the developing cherries.

Man said the shortfall in Indonesian production was bound to cause problems for some roasters, particularly the Japanese, who have come to depend on this origin to provide the staple robustas for their blends.

But the drop in Indonesia could be offset by a sharp increase in the Ivorian harvest.

Arrivals indicate that the crop will come in at over 5.0 million bags, compared to production of over 2.7 million last year, the highest Ivorian crop since the 1980/81 season.

El Nino

Man said most robusta coffee-growing regions were likely to be affected by the cyclical El Nino weather pattern developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

The El Nino, which scientists say won't peak until December 1997 and could be almost as severe as that of 1992/83 -- this century's worst -- is overwhelmingly a phenomenon of the robusta market, the firm said in its June/July coffee report.

The El Nino, Spanish for Christ Child, is caused by a warming of the Pacific Ocean which interacts with other weather systems and typically produces freak weather such as drought in some areas and heavier than normal rainfall in others.

The 1983 El Nino caused withering drought in Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines and South Africa. Floods inundated India and Peru while severe winter storms lashed California.

Man said a drought between May this year and April 1998 and linked to the El Nino could affect key robusta producer Indonesia. It had a major impact on the coffee market in 1982.

Heavy rainfalls in Ecuador, northern Peru and the coast of southern Colombia from December this year to July 1998 could affect logistics but would have little impact on crops.

Dry weather in north-east Brazil from now to March next year affects cocoa more than coffee.

There will be dry weather in West Africa, including Cameroon and Ivory Coast, from November this year to October next year.

Data from Vietnam, Asia's largest robusta producer after Indonesia, were patchy although it appears to be north of the main El Nino impact area.