Indonesian coffee output may drop 30 percent<\/p>\n
LONDON (Reuter): A consensus is emerging among coffee
\nexporters that the Indonesian robusta coffee crop is at least 30
\npercent lower in 1997\/98 than a year earlier, UK trade house E D
\n& F Man said yesterday.<\/p>\n
Total 1996\/97 production, including arabicas, is estimated at
\n7.0 million bags, so a 30 percent fall in robusta production
\nwould cut the current crop to below 5.0 million bags, it said in
\nits June\/July coffee report.<\/p>\n
Internal consumption totaled 1.8 million.<\/p>\n
Man said the size of the apparent fall in Indonesian
\nproduction has taken many exporters by surprise.<\/p>\n
However, the actual pattern of rainfall in Indonesia during
\n1996 and early 1997 appeared to have been singularly bad for
\ncoffee.<\/p>\n
Excessive rainfall during the June-November flowering period
\ndamaged the flowers and the young cherries while a dry spell from
\nJanuary to March damaged the developing cherries.<\/p>\n
Man said the shortfall in Indonesian production was bound to
\ncause problems for some roasters, particularly the Japanese, who
\nhave come to depend on this origin to provide the staple robustas
\nfor their blends.<\/p>\n
But the drop in Indonesia could be offset by a sharp increase
\nin the Ivorian harvest.<\/p>\n
Arrivals indicate that the crop will come in at over 5.0
\nmillion bags, compared to production of over 2.7 million last
\nyear, the highest Ivorian crop since the 1980\/81 season.<\/p>\n
El Nino<\/p>\n
Man said most robusta coffee-growing regions were likely to be
\naffected by the cyclical El Nino weather pattern developing in
\nthe tropical Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n
The El Nino, which scientists say won't peak until December
\n1997 and could be almost as severe as that of 1992\/83 -- this
\ncentury's worst -- is overwhelmingly a phenomenon of the robusta
\nmarket, the firm said in its June\/July coffee report.<\/p>\n
The El Nino, Spanish for Christ Child, is caused by a warming
\nof the Pacific Ocean which interacts with other weather systems
\nand typically produces freak weather such as drought in some
\nareas and heavier than normal rainfall in others.<\/p>\n
The 1983 El Nino caused withering drought in Australia,
\nIndonesia, the Philippines and South Africa. Floods inundated
\nIndia and Peru while severe winter storms lashed California.<\/p>\n
Man said a drought between May this year and April 1998 and
\nlinked to the El Nino could affect key robusta producer
\nIndonesia. It had a major impact on the coffee market in 1982.<\/p>\n
Heavy rainfalls in Ecuador, northern Peru and the coast of
\nsouthern Colombia from December this year to July 1998 could
\naffect logistics but would have little impact on crops.<\/p>\n
Dry weather in north-east Brazil from now to March next year
\naffects cocoa more than coffee.<\/p>\n
There will be dry weather in West Africa, including Cameroon
\nand Ivory Coast, from November this year to October next year.<\/p>\n
Data from Vietnam, Asia's largest robusta producer after
\nIndonesia, were patchy although it appears to be north of the
\nmain El Nino impact area.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/indonesian-coffee-output-may-drop-30-percent-1447893297",
"image": ""
},
"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
"sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}