Indonesia Under a Run of Bad News: Oil and the Dollar Rally, China's Economy Grim

Indonesia’s stock market closed up 133.48 points, or 1.76%, at 7,710.54 on Thursday 5 March 2026. A total of 597 stocks rose, 125 fell, and 96 were unchanged. Foreign investors posted a net sale of Rp 210 billion. Yesterday’s value was relatively muted at Rp 17.9 trillion with a volume of 34.5 billion shares. From the United States, Wall Street continued its decline as concerns over the Iran war escalated with crude oil prices breaching $80 a barrel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 784.67 points, or 1.61%, to 47,954.74. The S&P 500 weakened 0.56% to 6,830.71, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.26% to 22,748.99. The sell-off was led by Boeing, Caterpillar, and other shares expected to be most affected if the global economy slows. Oil prices jumped, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures moving above $80 per barrel in the afternoon and reaching the highest level since July 2024 after Iran said it had struck a tanker with a missile. WTI closed up more than 8% at $81.01 per barrel. Brent crude rose almost 5% to $85.41 per barrel. The price movements triggered significant volatility in the market throughout the session. The Dow had logged a drop of as much as 1,000 points near the moment oil breached $80, and the index even fell as much as 1,100 points or about 2.4% at its low. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq traded near session lows after earlier trading slightly above flat at their intraday highs, and at their lows each fell about 1.4%. West Texas Intermediate and Brent had actually stabilised the previous day, helping the Dow advance more than 200 points on Wednesday. On a weekly basis, WTI has risen more than 20% and Brent about 18%, on track for the biggest weekly gain since March 2022. Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Thursday said Iran does not seek a ceasefire from the United States or Israel. With rising uncertainty about the conflict, Sam Stovall of CFRA Research told CNBC International that investors are wondering if the US has taken too big steps to tackle it. ‘Can President Donald Trump truly oversee all vessels transiting the Hormuz Strait?’ he asked. ‘What risks will we bear, and how will this affect our debt levels? Investors basically say whatever happens right now is not good news.’ Concerns about supply disruption in the oil and gas region eased after Trump said on Tuesday the US was preparing risk insurance and escorting ships in the Persian Gulf to ensure traffic passes through the Hormuz Strait. However, the White House did not provide a timetable for when the strait would be truly safe for tanker ships. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in a briefing to reporters on Wednesday said the United States was winning convincingly in the conflict with Iran and that more troops were being deployed to the region. Separately, Finance Minister Scott Bessent said that the 15% global tariff recently announced by Trump was likely to take effect this week. Against market pressure, Berkshire Hathaway shares rose by more than 2% on the day after the conglomerate revealed it was buybacking its own shares for the first time since 2024. CEO Greg Abel also bought company shares worth $15 million personally. Indonesia’s financial markets are expected to remain under heavy pressure today as the war intensifies, oil prices rise, and the latest Chinese economic projections weigh on sentiment. Foreign Exchange Reserves February 2026: Bank Indonesia will release February 2026 foreign exchange reserves data today. Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves at end-January 2026 stood at US$154.6 billion, down from US$156.5 billion at end-December 2025. The development was influenced by government external debt payments and rupiah-stabilisation policy in response to increasing global financial market uncertainty. At end-January 2026, the position equates to 6.3 months of imports or 6.1 months of imports and external debt payments, and is above the international adequacy standard of around 3 months of imports. OJK Confirms Indonesia’s Economy Solid: The Financial Services Authority (OJK) confirms Indonesia’s financial sector remains solid despite Fitch Ratings revising its debt outlook from stable to negative, with the credit rating remaining BBB. Acting Chair Friderica Widyasari Dewi said OJK is monitoring the decision and other background factors. She emphasised the government and related authorities continue to strengthen policy coordination to maintain financial system stability and support sustainable economic growth. According to Friderica, the national financial system remains supported by a strong supervisory framework. OJK is also continuing structural reforms to improve tr