Indonesia plans to go nuclear

By Stephen Carr

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Indonesia's plan to develop up to a dozen nuclear power plants on Java and Bali early in the next century has drawn criticism due to the horrific consequences that could result from a nuclear accident. This is complicated by the fact that, not only are the islands among the world's most densely populated, but they are also prone to volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. _________________________________________________________________

BANDUNG, West Java (JP): In Central Java, a site is being prepared for the construction of a nuclear reactor, the first in a cluster of four. The location is near Mount Muria, a volcano which proponents of the nuclear program say is extinct.

There are doubts about this, fueled by an Indonesian government land survey which classified the volcano as still active, but, politically, opponents of the nuclear plan are not in a strong position.

The nuclear lobby is led by Minister of Research and Technology B.J. Habibie, who, together with a like-minded group of ministers, the "technologists," is a prominent force in the new cabinet, just formed in 1993.

Their position is that Indonesia should not go the route of gradual transformation from a low-wage sweat-shop economy to an industrial power. They want high technology now to rapidly catch up with the West.

One of the main objections to the nuclear option is that Indonesia already has inexpensive conventional sources of electricity in abundance and has successfully run power plants based on these resources.

The country is not only the world's largest exporter of natural gas, but has ample deposits of coal and oil, which it uses to produce electricity.

Negligible

Electricity bills in Indonesia are negligible compared to those in more developed parts of the world. Electricity from conventional coal-fired power stations costs only 4.5 U.S. cents per kilowatt hour.

The Mount Muria nuclear power station itself will cost $2 billion to build. And the electricity produced will cost more. The public electricity utility has calculated the cost at nearly eight cents per kilowatt hour.

The National Atomic Energy Agency (Batan) will be in charge of ensuring the safe transport of dangerous materials, accepting tenders and overseeing construction of nuclear plants. However, with its close ties to the government, some doubt it will be able to act as a truly independent body.

Such an agency needs the technical ability, authority and freedom to order an immediate shutdown of a nuclear power station in the event of accident.

An independent regulatory agency to oversee any nuclear program is regarded by experts as the most critical factor in running such an operation.

Batan will be accepting tenders from foreign companies for building the first plant in early 1995. Firms from France, Germany and Japan have already expressed an interest in the project. Russia may also be invited to bid for a contract.

The Australian government has said it would be willing to sell Indonesia uranium to fuel its reactors and is treating the issue as just another good business opportunity.

The construction aspect of the operation has caused great concern. The companies with the winning bids will need to employ hundreds of local contractors in the building work.

In conventional engineering projects, endemic corruption and nepotism often make it difficult to ensure the most competent operators are awarded the right contracts.

Also common is a willingness to compromise high safety standards by cutting costs or rushing jobs to meet deadlines.

Disaster

Another cause for concern is that the Mount Muria nuclear power plant will have a 600 megawatt reactor -- the same size Taiwan and South Korea built to start their nuclear programs -- with a pressurized water reactor such as the one contained in the Chernobyl plant.

Since the accident there on April 26, 1986, the nuclear industry has been on a propaganda offensive to convince the world that Chernobyl had an old-fashioned, unsafe reactor. The industry argues that more sophisticated designs will ensure that another Chernobyl-type accident cannot happen.

If this argument is valid for Indonesia, the question remains as to whether the planned system will be sophisticated enough to guarantee accident prevention.

And what about human error? The Chernobyl reactor was replete with fail-safe devices, but investigations into the Chernobyl accident proved that it was caused by a series of human errors rather than technical ones.

Although the citizens of Indonesia itself would suffer the worst consequences in the event of a nuclear disaster, the Australian media is already voicing concern about the extent of the fallout zone should a nuclear accident occur.

It has refused to be deferential on the issue, either to the Indonesian government or its own. Reports have appeared on the "folly" of Indonesia's nuclear option. A foreign technical expert was quoted as saying: "When Indonesia builds a nuclear power plant, it's time to get out of the country."

Risk

Java, home to more than 100 million people, is part of a region prone to volcanic activity and earthquakes. It is situated over four tectonic plates, or shifting slabs of the earth's crust, which cause this volatility.

Of the world's nine most active earthquake zones, Java and Bali are located in the second most active area, with the typical maximum level of Java's earthquakes being eight on the Richter scale.

Java has 20 active volcanoes and Bali two.

Some domestic opposition to the nuclear power program has come to the fore, but voices of dissent are few.

One such dissenting group, the Indonesian Environmental Forum (Walhi) has campaigned on the issue. Walhi printed 25,000 leaflets stating its arguments against the nuclear plan and organized a seminar in Jakarta to discuss its point of view.

The seminar was not allowed to take place. Lack of a police permit to stage the event was the official reason given for the ban.

So far there has not been much debate about any ulterior motives connected with going nuclear. But Walhi has not been afraid to speak out. Its spokesman, Agung Kiriadi, said he believes the plan to acquire nuclear technology went back to the time of first president Sukarno.

Kiriadi said he believes the push to process nuclear materials contains a hidden agenda. Once the technology is mastered, "it will not be too far," he said, from obtaining the know-how "to get nuclear weapons."

None of Indonesia's immediate neighbors -- neither Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei nor Papua New Guinea -- have expressed any disquiet over the nuclear plan, although they would certainly suffer the consequences of any nuclear mishap.

The first three are fellow members of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), along with Indonesia. There is a consensus among ASEAN governments that members do not comment on each other's policies. Papua New Guinea also shares this convention regarding Indonesia.

So Habibie's plans to build a reactor, the first of up to 12 in Java and Bali, look likely to go forward. None of the neighbors object. Australia is looking forward to its receipts from future uranium sales. And there will be no shortage of companies, in search of profits, willing to build it.