Indonesia plans to go nuclear

Indonesia plans to go nuclear

By Stephen Carr

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Indonesia's plan to develop up to a dozen nuclear power plants
on Java and Bali early in the next century has drawn criticism
due to the horrific consequences that could result from a nuclear
accident. This is complicated by the fact that, not only are the
islands among the world's most densely populated, but they are
also prone to volcanic eruptions and earthquakes.
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BANDUNG, West Java (JP): In Central Java, a site is being
prepared for the construction of a nuclear reactor, the first in
a cluster of four. The location is near Mount Muria, a volcano
which proponents of the nuclear program say is extinct.

There are doubts about this, fueled by an Indonesian
government land survey which classified the volcano as still
active, but, politically, opponents of the nuclear plan are not
in a strong position.

The nuclear lobby is led by Minister of Research and
Technology B.J. Habibie, who, together with a like-minded group
of ministers, the "technologists," is a prominent force in the
new cabinet, just formed in 1993.

Their position is that Indonesia should not go the route of
gradual transformation from a low-wage sweat-shop economy to an
industrial power. They want high technology now to rapidly
catch up with the West.

One of the main objections to the nuclear option is that
Indonesia already has inexpensive conventional sources of
electricity in abundance and has successfully run power plants
based on these resources.

The country is not only the world's largest exporter of
natural gas, but has ample deposits of coal and oil, which it
uses to produce electricity.

Negligible

Electricity bills in Indonesia are negligible compared to
those in more developed parts of the world. Electricity from
conventional coal-fired power stations costs only 4.5 U.S. cents
per kilowatt hour.

The Mount Muria nuclear power station itself will cost $2
billion to build. And the electricity produced will cost more.
The public electricity utility has calculated the cost at nearly
eight cents per kilowatt hour.

The National Atomic Energy Agency (Batan) will be in charge of
ensuring the safe transport of dangerous materials, accepting
tenders and overseeing construction of nuclear plants. However,
with its close ties to the government, some doubt it will be able
to act as a truly independent body.

Such an agency needs the technical ability, authority and
freedom to order an immediate shutdown of a nuclear power station
in the event of accident.

An independent regulatory agency to oversee any nuclear
program is regarded by experts as the most critical factor in
running such an operation.

Batan will be accepting tenders from foreign companies for
building the first plant in early 1995. Firms from France,
Germany and Japan have already expressed an interest in the
project. Russia may also be invited to bid for a contract.

The Australian government has said it would be willing to sell
Indonesia uranium to fuel its reactors and is treating the issue
as just another good business opportunity.

The construction aspect of the operation has caused great
concern. The companies with the winning bids will need to employ
hundreds of local contractors in the building work.

In conventional engineering projects, endemic corruption and
nepotism often make it difficult to ensure the most competent
operators are awarded the right contracts.

Also common is a willingness to compromise high safety
standards by cutting costs or rushing jobs to meet deadlines.

Disaster

Another cause for concern is that the Mount Muria nuclear
power plant will have a 600 megawatt reactor -- the same size
Taiwan and South Korea built to start their nuclear programs --
with a pressurized water reactor such as the one contained in the
Chernobyl plant.

Since the accident there on April 26, 1986, the nuclear
industry has been on a propaganda offensive to convince the world
that Chernobyl had an old-fashioned, unsafe reactor. The industry
argues that more sophisticated designs will ensure that another
Chernobyl-type accident cannot happen.

If this argument is valid for Indonesia, the question remains
as to whether the planned system will be sophisticated enough to
guarantee accident prevention.

And what about human error? The Chernobyl reactor was replete
with fail-safe devices, but investigations into the Chernobyl
accident proved that it was caused by a series of human errors
rather than technical ones.

Although the citizens of Indonesia itself would suffer the
worst consequences in the event of a nuclear disaster, the
Australian media is already voicing concern about the extent of
the fallout zone should a nuclear accident occur.

It has refused to be deferential on the issue, either to the
Indonesian government or its own. Reports have appeared on the
"folly" of Indonesia's nuclear option. A foreign technical expert
was quoted as saying: "When Indonesia builds a nuclear power
plant, it's time to get out of the country."

Risk

Java, home to more than 100 million people, is part of a
region prone to volcanic activity and earthquakes. It is situated
over four tectonic plates, or shifting slabs of the earth's
crust, which cause this volatility.

Of the world's nine most active earthquake zones, Java and
Bali are located in the second most active area, with the typical
maximum level of Java's earthquakes being eight on the Richter
scale.

Java has 20 active volcanoes and Bali two.

Some domestic opposition to the nuclear power program has come
to the fore, but voices of dissent are few.

One such dissenting group, the Indonesian Environmental Forum
(Walhi) has campaigned on the issue. Walhi printed 25,000
leaflets stating its arguments against the nuclear plan and
organized a seminar in Jakarta to discuss its point of view.

The seminar was not allowed to take place. Lack of a police
permit to stage the event was the official reason given for the
ban.

So far there has not been much debate about any ulterior
motives connected with going nuclear. But Walhi has not been
afraid to speak out. Its spokesman, Agung Kiriadi, said he
believes the plan to acquire nuclear technology went back to the
time of first president Sukarno.

Kiriadi said he believes the push to process nuclear materials
contains a hidden agenda. Once the technology is mastered, "it
will not be too far," he said, from obtaining the know-how "to
get nuclear weapons."

None of Indonesia's immediate neighbors -- neither Singapore,
Malaysia, Brunei nor Papua New Guinea -- have expressed any
disquiet over the nuclear plan, although they would certainly
suffer the consequences of any nuclear mishap.

The first three are fellow members of ASEAN (Association of
Southeast Asian Nations), along with Indonesia. There is a
consensus among ASEAN governments that members do not comment on
each other's policies. Papua New Guinea also shares this
convention regarding Indonesia.

So Habibie's plans to build a reactor, the first of up to 12
in Java and Bali, look likely to go forward. None of the
neighbors object. Australia is looking forward to its receipts
from future uranium sales. And there will be no shortage of
companies, in search of profits, willing to build it.