Indonesia plans to go nuclear<\/p>\n
By Stephen Carr<\/p>\n
_________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n
Indonesia's plan to develop up to a dozen nuclear power plants
\non Java and Bali early in the next century has drawn criticism
\ndue to the horrific consequences that could result from a nuclear
\naccident. This is complicated by the fact that, not only are the
\nislands among the world's most densely populated, but they are
\nalso prone to volcanic eruptions and earthquakes.
\n_________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n
BANDUNG, West Java (JP): In Central Java, a site is being
\nprepared for the construction of a nuclear reactor, the first in
\na cluster of four. The location is near Mount Muria, a volcano
\nwhich proponents of the nuclear program say is extinct.<\/p>\n
There are doubts about this, fueled by an Indonesian
\ngovernment land survey which classified the volcano as still
\nactive, but, politically, opponents of the nuclear plan are not
\nin a strong position.<\/p>\n
The nuclear lobby is led by Minister of Research and
\nTechnology B.J. Habibie, who, together with a like-minded group
\nof ministers, the \"technologists,\" is a prominent force in the
\nnew cabinet, just formed in 1993.<\/p>\n
Their position is that Indonesia should not go the route of
\ngradual transformation from a low-wage sweat-shop economy to an
\nindustrial power. They want high technology now to rapidly
\ncatch up with the West.<\/p>\n
One of the main objections to the nuclear option is that
\nIndonesia already has inexpensive conventional sources of
\nelectricity in abundance and has successfully run power plants
\nbased on these resources.<\/p>\n
The country is not only the world's largest exporter of
\nnatural gas, but has ample deposits of coal and oil, which it
\nuses to produce electricity.<\/p>\n
Negligible<\/p>\n
Electricity bills in Indonesia are negligible compared to
\nthose in more developed parts of the world. Electricity from
\nconventional coal-fired power stations costs only 4.5 U.S. cents
\nper kilowatt hour.<\/p>\n
The Mount Muria nuclear power station itself will cost $2
\nbillion to build. And the electricity produced will cost more.
\nThe public electricity utility has calculated the cost at nearly
\neight cents per kilowatt hour.<\/p>\n
The National Atomic Energy Agency (Batan) will be in charge of
\nensuring the safe transport of dangerous materials, accepting
\ntenders and overseeing construction of nuclear plants. However,
\nwith its close ties to the government, some doubt it will be able
\nto act as a truly independent body.<\/p>\n
Such an agency needs the technical ability, authority and
\nfreedom to order an immediate shutdown of a nuclear power station
\nin the event of accident.<\/p>\n
An independent regulatory agency to oversee any nuclear
\nprogram is regarded by experts as the most critical factor in
\nrunning such an operation.<\/p>\n
Batan will be accepting tenders from foreign companies for
\nbuilding the first plant in early 1995. Firms from France,
\nGermany and Japan have already expressed an interest in the
\nproject. Russia may also be invited to bid for a contract.<\/p>\n
The Australian government has said it would be willing to sell
\nIndonesia uranium to fuel its reactors and is treating the issue
\nas just another good business opportunity.<\/p>\n
The construction aspect of the operation has caused great
\nconcern. The companies with the winning bids will need to employ
\nhundreds of local contractors in the building work.<\/p>\n
In conventional engineering projects, endemic corruption and
\nnepotism often make it difficult to ensure the most competent
\noperators are awarded the right contracts.<\/p>\n
Also common is a willingness to compromise high safety
\nstandards by cutting costs or rushing jobs to meet deadlines.<\/p>\n
Disaster<\/p>\n
Another cause for concern is that the Mount Muria nuclear
\npower plant will have a 600 megawatt reactor -- the same size
\nTaiwan and South Korea built to start their nuclear programs --
\nwith a pressurized water reactor such as the one contained in the
\nChernobyl plant.<\/p>\n
Since the accident there on April 26, 1986, the nuclear
\nindustry has been on a propaganda offensive to convince the world
\nthat Chernobyl had an old-fashioned, unsafe reactor. The industry
\nargues that more sophisticated designs will ensure that another
\nChernobyl-type accident cannot happen.<\/p>\n
If this argument is valid for Indonesia, the question remains
\nas to whether the planned system will be sophisticated enough to
\nguarantee accident prevention.<\/p>\n
And what about human error? The Chernobyl reactor was replete
\nwith fail-safe devices, but investigations into the Chernobyl
\naccident proved that it was caused by a series of human errors
\nrather than technical ones.<\/p>\n
Although the citizens of Indonesia itself would suffer the
\nworst consequences in the event of a nuclear disaster, the
\nAustralian media is already voicing concern about the extent of
\nthe fallout zone should a nuclear accident occur.<\/p>\n
It has refused to be deferential on the issue, either to the
\nIndonesian government or its own. Reports have appeared on the
\n\"folly\" of Indonesia's nuclear option. A foreign technical expert
\nwas quoted as saying: \"When Indonesia builds a nuclear power
\nplant, it's time to get out of the country.\"<\/p>\n
Risk<\/p>\n
Java, home to more than 100 million people, is part of a
\nregion prone to volcanic activity and earthquakes. It is situated
\nover four tectonic plates, or shifting slabs of the earth's
\ncrust, which cause this volatility.<\/p>\n
Of the world's nine most active earthquake zones, Java and
\nBali are located in the second most active area, with the typical
\nmaximum level of Java's earthquakes being eight on the Richter
\nscale.<\/p>\n
Java has 20 active volcanoes and Bali two.<\/p>\n
Some domestic opposition to the nuclear power program has come
\nto the fore, but voices of dissent are few.<\/p>\n
One such dissenting group, the Indonesian Environmental Forum
\n(Walhi) has campaigned on the issue. Walhi printed 25,000
\nleaflets stating its arguments against the nuclear plan and
\norganized a seminar in Jakarta to discuss its point of view.<\/p>\n
The seminar was not allowed to take place. Lack of a police
\npermit to stage the event was the official reason given for the
\nban.<\/p>\n
So far there has not been much debate about any ulterior
\nmotives connected with going nuclear. But Walhi has not been
\nafraid to speak out. Its spokesman, Agung Kiriadi, said he
\nbelieves the plan to acquire nuclear technology went back to the
\ntime of first president Sukarno.<\/p>\n
Kiriadi said he believes the push to process nuclear materials
\ncontains a hidden agenda. Once the technology is mastered, \"it
\nwill not be too far,\" he said, from obtaining the know-how \"to
\nget nuclear weapons.\"<\/p>\n
None of Indonesia's immediate neighbors -- neither Singapore,
\nMalaysia, Brunei nor Papua New Guinea -- have expressed any
\ndisquiet over the nuclear plan, although they would certainly
\nsuffer the consequences of any nuclear mishap.<\/p>\n
The first three are fellow members of ASEAN (Association of
\nSoutheast Asian Nations), along with Indonesia. There is a
\nconsensus among ASEAN governments that members do not comment on
\neach other's policies. Papua New Guinea also shares this
\nconvention regarding Indonesia.<\/p>\n
So Habibie's plans to build a reactor, the first of up to 12
\nin Java and Bali, look likely to go forward. None of the
\nneighbors object. Australia is looking forward to its receipts
\nfrom future uranium sales. And there will be no shortage of
\ncompanies, in search of profits, willing to build it.<\/p>",
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