Indonesia on Alert Level 1 as BMKG Warns 2026 Dry Season Will Be Longer and Drier

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) has confirmed that the weak La Niña affecting Indonesia since October 2025 has officially ended. And, the majority of Indonesia is set to experience an earlier or advanced dry season in 2026.

Moreover, according to BMKG head Teuku Faisal Fathani, the duration of the 2026 dry season across most parts of Indonesia is forecast to be longer than normal, at 400 ZOM or 57.2% of the total Seasonal Zones (ZOM) in Indonesia.

‘So this should be noted, that the dry season we will face in 2026 will be longer than normal,’ said Faisal in a press conference broadcast on BMKG’s YouTube channel, Wednesday (4 March 2026).

‘We hope that information about the 2026 dry season can serve as a general guide in setting mitigation and anticipatory planning measures, and as a long-term basis for various sectors affected by the climate,’ Faisal insisted.

Faisal outlined the initial schedule of the 2026 dry season in Indonesia’s regions.

‘It will begin from the Nusa Tenggara region, then move westward, gradually to other parts of Indonesia,’ he said.

The regions expected to enter the dry season in April 2026 amount to 114 ZOM or about 16.3% of the 699 ZOM across Indonesia.

Meanwhile, areas entering the dry season in May 2026 number 184 ZOM or 26.3% of ZOM, and in June 2026 there are 163 ZOM or 23.3% of the total.

‘In terms of the comparison of early-season, the majority of Indonesia is forecast to arrive earlier or ahead. That is 325 ZOM or 46.5% of all ZOM. And some forecasts show the onset is the same as normal, i.e., 173 ZOM or 23.7%,’ he added.

‘The nature of the 2026 dry season, he noted, indicates that rainfall accumulation during the 2026 dry season across 451 ZOM or 64.5% of all ZOM in Indonesia is forecast to be in the below-normal category or drier than usual,’ Faisal said.

Regarding the peak of the dry season, he added, most of Indonesia, or 429 ZOM or 61.4% of all ZOM, are forecast to experience their peak in August 2026.

‘If we compare the peak of the dry season, in most parts of Indonesia the onset is forecast to occur earlier or ahead. That is 410 ZOM or 58.7% of all Seasonal Zones in Indonesia. And those predicted to have the same peak as normal amount to 142 ZOM or 20.3% of all,’ Faisal said.