Indonesia-Middle East Trade Minimal, LPEI: Impact of Iran War on Exports and Imports Limited

Indonesia Eximbank assesses that the direct impact of escalating conflict in the Middle East on Indonesia’s trade remains relatively limited. This assessment is based on the small trade exposure to the region.

“The main risks actually emerge through indirect channels, particularly rises in energy prices, exchange rate volatility, and slowdowns in industrial activity in major trading partner countries that could affect Indonesia’s export dynamics,” said Head of Indonesia Eximbank Institute Rini Satriani in her statement in Jakarta on Wednesday (18/3/2026).

Data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), processed by the Indonesia Eximbank Institute, shows that Indonesia’s exports to the Middle East amount to only around 4.2% of total national exports. The main commodities include palm oil (HS 1511), jewellery (HS 7113), and cars and other motor vehicles (HS 8703).

Meanwhile, Indonesia’s imports from the region reach around 3.9% of total national imports and are dominated by energy commodities, particularly oil. This structure indicates that Indonesia’s direct trade exposure to the conflict zone is relatively limited.

Most of Indonesia’s exports actually flow to other regions such as East Asia (36.4%), Southeast Asia (20.8%), North America (11.5%), South Asia (9.6%), and Western Europe (5.7%). Thus, economic dynamics in those regions remain the primary determinants of national export performance.

Nevertheless, Rini said her side continues to monitor conflict developments and their implications for global trade, particularly regarding the stability of international energy routes.

“We are carefully monitoring dynamics in the Middle East region, including the security of strategic shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the world’s main arteries for energy trade,” she stated.