Indonesia after Sept. 11: Rowing between the cliffs

Indonesia after Sept. 11: Rowing between the cliffs

Siswo Pramono, PhD Graduate Student in Political Science
and International Relations, The Australian National University,
Canberra

The U.S.-led war on terror is not a war between the West and
Islam; however, as a country with the largest Muslim population
in the world, Indonesia cannot escape the impact of this war.

As the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan failed to apprehend
Osama bin Laden, the hunt for groups and individuals suspected of
having links with al-Qaeda began in Indonesia, Malaysia,
Singapore and the (Southern) Philippines. By then Southeast Asia
was considered by U.S. strategists as the second front in the war
on terror.

The campaign resulted in the arrests of some Indonesian
citizens and leaders of militant groups. Not many of the cases
can be brought to trial, reportedly because of a lack of
evidence. This second front in the war on terror then moved from
Southeast Asia to the Gulf.

The Gulf, for the U.S., represents a two-fold issue. The issue
of dismantling Iraqi weapons of mass destruction has been
lingering for the last four years. But the decision to topple
Saddam Hussein was made about six months ago. If the U.S.
proceeds with its goal of a regime change in Iraq, Indonesia will
need to brace itself against another impact from the war on
terror.

Indonesia needs to row between the cliffs, between principle
and practical policy, between domestic and international
pressure.

There is contention between the UN Charter's principle of a
peaceful means to resolve a conflict and U.S. politics. While
Indonesia should help promote such a principle, it cannot escape
the political reality of the UN Security Council.

The position of each permanent member on the Council is
ambivalent. The United Kingdom, despite its domestic opposition,
will likely join, albeit for a limited term, a military strike on
Iraq. And the French would not likely challenge the States'
determination.

Russia will give priority to establishing better relations,
economic and otherwise, with the U.S. and the West, then to
protect Iraq. Russia has faced the acute problem of Muslim
insurgency in Chechnya.

China, too, despite the rift with the U.S. over Taiwan, will
unlikely take an antagonistic position for two reasons. China has
been bothered by the issue of Muslim insurgency in some of its
regions. And the U.S. has encircled China with its current
engagements in Afghanistan, India, Pakistan and Southeast Asia.

As such, the U.S. might wage a war against Iraq without
worrying much about the formal position of the UN Security
Council.

The Arab states are more united than before in resisting the
U.S. strike on Iraq. But the major powers in the Asia-Pacific
region, most notably Australia and Japan, will likely side with
the U.S.

The Indonesian government will also face mounting pressure at
home. Domestic politics will compel the government to assert its
political position regarding the U.S. strategy of a regime change
in Iraq. Experience during the U.S.-led invasion in Afghanistan
proved how difficult that was.

The government needs to anticipate the worst case scenario in
accordance with the principles of democracy and the rule of law.
While debates about U.S. foreign policy on Iraq represent a
healthy public discourse, any attempt to intimidate expatriates
or threaten foreign institutions in Indonesia needs to be
prevented.

While harsh criticism against the U.S. policy on Iraq or anti-
American statements issued by militant groups or individuals
should not be considered a crime, hate crime, which is aimed at a
particular nationality, religion or race, needs to be dealt with
according to the law.

Radical ideas, religious or otherwise, should be allowed as
long as they are expressed within the corridor of democracy and
provided that they do not materialize in a way that violates the
law.

President Megawati Soekarnoputri's diplomacy during the U.S.-
led invasion in Afghanistan was effective and this strategy can
be employed again to mitigate the impact that the U.S. policy on
Iraq will have on Indonesia. The strategy needs to reconcile
principle with practical policy; and hence accommodate both
international and domestic pressure.

Indonesia needs to push for peaceful ways to dismantle Iraq's
weapons of mass destruction. This solution would save millions of
Iraqis and promote stability in the Gulf and beyond.

This principle, however, needs to be implemented in a
practical policy, taking into account our efforts to survive the
multidimensional crisis. Diplomacy needs to reconcile Indonesia's
effort to promote peace and stability in Southeast Asia and the
Middle East with the country's economic interests in the Asia-
Pacific, particularly North America, and Western Europe.

The writer works at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.