Indo Premier Analyst: IHSG Volatility to Remain High This Week
Equity analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT), Hari Rachmansyah, predicts that the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) will move in a mixed manner with a consolidative tendency, in line with the still varied global and domestic sentiments. Last week, the IHSG successfully rebounded to the level of 7,458 with a strengthening of 6.14 percent.
Hari predicts that global indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite will once again face pressure following the latest failed negotiations between the United States and Iran, which have not yielded concrete agreements.
“This situation prolongs global geopolitical uncertainty and increases investor concerns about the potential escalation of conflict that could directly impact energy market stability,” he stated in an official release on Monday, 13 April 2026.
On the other hand, Hari said, market expectations regarding the direction of The Fed’s policy have also turned hawkish again, in line with the still high energy-based inflation risks. This condition has the potential to keep US bond yields high and add further pressure on risk assets, particularly growth-based stocks that are sensitive to interest rates.
“Overall, this dynamic is pushing global investors to adopt a risk-off stance in the short term, with the potential for rotation to safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and energy commodities,” said Hari. He stated that market volatility is expected to remain high over the next week.
Meanwhile, domestically, IHSG movements are expected to be influenced by two main catalysts: the potential adjustment of non-subsidised fuel prices and steps to stabilise the rupiah exchange rate, which is currently under pressure around Rp17,000 against the US dollar.
According to Hari, the combination of energy price adjustment policies and exchange rate stabilisation reflects the government’s more anticipatory stance in maintaining macroeconomic stability. However, Hari assesses that the market is likely to respond cautiously in the short term, amid increasing sensitivity to inflation risks and the direction of further policies.
“Going forward, the effectiveness of implementing these policies and coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities will be key in determining the direction of domestic market sentiment and the sustainability of fund flows into Indonesia’s financial markets,” he said.