Indef views global food price stability as positive signal ahead of Lebaran
The Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) has assessed that global food conditions currently demonstrate stabilisation signals that could serve as a positive factor ahead of Eid al-Fitr 1447 Hijrah in Indonesia.
Afaqa Hudaya, researcher at Indef’s Centre for Food, Energy, and Sustainable Development, stated during an online discussion monitored from Jakarta on Monday that global food prices remain incompletely recovered; however, previously significant pressure is beginning to ease as supply conditions improve across various countries.
“When examining global food price stabilisation amid food security risks, the situation is currently quite persistent, with global food prices entering a stabilisation phase,” he said.
He explained that easing pressure on global food prices is inseparable from improved agricultural production in several countries, which is also supported by better weather conditions, thereby increasing global agricultural output.
“The easing of price pressure occurs within the context of relatively adequate global supply,” Afaqa stated.
On the domestic front, he assessed that food price dynamics ahead of Ramadan demonstrated moderation compared to volatility experienced in the previous year. Whilst price increases occurred in certain commodities such as medium-grade rice, sugar, and cooking oil, these conditions remained within an anticipated trend that could be managed through proper supply management.
Beyond food, Afaqa also highlighted developments in the global energy market, which have been influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region. Whilst conflict has the potential to trigger oil price volatility, this situation also serves as a reminder of the importance of strengthening national energy resilience through energy source diversification.
Over the past decade, Indonesia’s oil and gas trade balance has remained in deficit. By the end of 2025, the oil and gas deficit was recorded at $2.09 billion, demonstrating that national energy consumption remains higher than domestic production capacity.
Energy transition programmes such as biodiesel, which have already commenced, represent, according to Afaqa, an important step towards reducing dependence on fuel imports.