INDEF: National Food Production Remains Stable, Broiler Chickens Experience Structural Surplus
Republika.co.id, Jakarta – National food production is considered to remain secure amid global pressures and dynamics of international trade. In the February 2026 Monthly Update report, the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) emphasises that, fundamentally, domestic production capacity remains strong, even in some strategic commodities there is a surplus.
Head of the Center for Food, Energy and Sustainable Development at INDEF, Abra Talattov, said that price pressures on food in early 2026 were more influenced by distribution and market management factors than by production limitations.
This suggests that, on the supply side, the foundation of national food security remains relatively safe. INDEF’s report notes that the livestock sub-sector grew 6.72 per cent (year-on-year) in Q4-2025, becoming one of the main pillars of growth in the agricultural sector.
Specifically, the broiler meat sector throughout 2025 was in a structural surplus in almost every month, with excess supply ranging from about 13,000 to 50,000 tonnes per month. This condition indicates that aggregate domestic production can exceed national consumption needs.
According to Abra, the surplus reflects the strong capacity of the national poultry industry. However, in an oversupply situation, trade policies and market management need to be carefully designed so as not to put excessive pressure on prices at the farm gate, especially for small and independent operators.
In line with these findings, the Minister of Agriculture (Mentan) Andi Amran Sulaiman also stressed that national food availability remains secure ahead of Eid al-Fitr, despite concerns about the impact of the Middle East conflict on global supply chains.
“Our food supply is more than adequate. Remember, the core staples for Indonesia are carbohydrates and rice,” the minister said in a statement on Tuesday (3/3/2026).
Other commodities such as eggs, chicken, and maize are also in a secure condition, with substitution options available if supply disruptions occur. “So the core national food stocks are safe and the government will continue to safeguard stability up to Eid,” he said.
The statement reinforces INDEF’s analysis that, from a production standpoint, domestic food availability remains safeguarded.
With strong growth in the livestock sub-sector and a surplus in broiler chickens, the national food sector is deemed to have a robust enough foundation to support the needs of the public amid global uncertainties throughout 2026.