Impact of Iran-Israel-US Conflict Begins to Bite as Fuel Prices Surge
Escalating energy prices have returned to the focus of global markets following military conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran, which has triggered disruptions to worldwide oil production and distribution. The impact is already being felt directly by consumers in the United States through rising fuel prices at petrol pumps.
The situation potentially poses additional pressure on the country’s economy. Even before the conflict erupted, the cost of living had already become one of the primary concerns among the public, so rising energy prices risk further constraining household spending.
Crude oil prices have surged sharply since the conflict broke out on 28 February. Before the war began, oil prices hovered around US$67 per barrel, but by Monday had risen to nearly US$97 per barrel. Oil prices even briefly pierced US$100 per barrel the previous Sunday before a slight correction.
The increase occurred because the conflict has disrupted energy production and transportation in one of the world’s most resource-rich regions. The geopolitical tensions have sparked concerns across global markets regarding the potential for prolonged disruptions to oil supplies.
The jump in oil prices has directly impacted petrol prices in the United States. The fuel price tracker GasBuddy reported that average petrol prices in the country have risen by approximately 51 cents per gallon over the past week.
Rising energy prices also have the potential to increase political pressure on the Donald Trump administration. The US government had previously faced criticism regarding high living costs, and rising petrol prices could worsen public perception of economic management.
Gregory Brew, a senior analyst monitoring Iran and oil markets at the Eurasia Group, estimates that fuel prices could rise further in the near term.
“I think the current rise in oil prices indicates that the United States could see petrol prices in the region of US$3.50 to US$4.00 per gallon next week, and diesel could reach US$5.00 per gallon this week,” he said, as reported by Al Jazeera on Tuesday, 10 March 2026.
According to Brew, the impact of current energy price increases is likely to be felt more significantly in political terms than in economic terms. High petrol prices often trigger negative media coverage and reinforce the perception that government is unable to manage economic conditions effectively.