Impact of Export-Focused State-Owned Enterprises, Rupiah Expected to Weaken Today (22 May)

Jakarta, Kompas.com - The rupiah is expected to weaken against the US dollar in today’s trading, Friday 22 May 2026, to around Rp 17,600–17,725 per US dollar.

Josua Pardede, Chief Economist at Permata Bank, said the rupiah’s weakness today stems from policy uncertainty surrounding the formation of a new state-owned enterprise, PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia.

Investors are beginning to anticipate new policies related to export governance processes, which would centralise export transactions for several commodities under the new SOE.

In addition, investors are shifting to other assets ahead of the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) announcement next month.

“Today, the rupiah is expected to fluctuate around Rp 17,600–17,725 per US dollar,” he said when contacted by Kompas.com on Friday.

Initial US unemployment claims fell to 209,000 from 212,000, lower than market expectations of 210,000, implying a tight US labour market.

Furthermore, the Preliminary S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.3 in May 2026 from 54.5. The figure beat market expectations of 53.8 and signalled that the US manufacturing sector remains solid amid global uncertainty.

“These data releases show that the US economy remains resilient, thus reducing expectations of monetary easing by the Fed,” he said.

As a result, at the close of Thursday’s trading (21 May 2026) local time, the dollar index rose slightly by 0.17 percent to 99.26.

Meanwhile, the rupiah weakened by 0.28 percent to Rp 17,654 per US dollar at Thursday’s close.

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