IMF Warns of Imminent Global Recession, Developing Countries Hit Hardest!
Jakarta – The war in the Middle East is beginning to show serious impacts on the global economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that this conflict has the potential to slow world economic growth, trigger new inflation, and even open the door to a global recession.
In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the IMF assesses that disruptions in the energy market due to the war have drastically altered the direction of the global economy. Rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty are the main factors pressuring growth in various countries.
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas emphasised the significant impact of this conflict on the world economy. “Global prospects have suddenly darkened following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. The war has halted the previously stable growth trajectory,” he stated, as quoted from the New York Times on Wednesday, 15 April 2026.
Previously, the global economy was deemed resilient enough to face various pressures, from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war to inflation spikes. However, the United States’ decision to initiate war with Iran is said to have stopped that recovery momentum.
The IMF estimates that even in the best-case scenario, economic impacts remain unavoidable. Global growth is predicted to fall to 3.1% in 2026, from 3.4% in 2025. This figure is also lower than the previous projection of 3.3%.
In the worst-case scenario, the impacts could be much deeper. The IMF warns that prolonged disruptions in the energy market could suppress global growth to just 2%, while inflation surges to 6%.
The surge in energy prices is one of the most palpable effects. Global oil prices have exceeded US$100 per barrel, equivalent to Rp1.7 million. Meanwhile, natural gas prices have jumped more than 80%. Fertiliser prices have also risen, potentially increasing global food production costs.
The IMF also forecasts that oil prices will rise 21.4% throughout this year. Even commodity energy prices, previously predicted to fall in 2026, are now expected to increase by around 19%.
This rise will ripple through various sectors. Production costs for goods such as steel and cement are certain to increase, consumer purchasing power will be eroded, and central banks will likely have to raise interest rates to control inflation.