IMF Gives Thumbs Up to Russia

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its growth outlook for Russia, attributing the upgrade to higher commodity prices, while cautioning that the war in the Middle East is burdening the global economy.

In its latest World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday, 14 April local time or Wednesday today, 15 April 2026 WIB, the IMF states that Russia’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.1 per cent in 2026, marking an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points from the earlier forecast this year.

This adjustment is driven by “higher commodity prices,” the report states, adding that this “momentum” is expected to continue into 2027.

Inflation is projected at 5.6 per cent this year, down from 8.7 per cent last year, and will further decline to 4.3 per cent in 2027.

Meanwhile, Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development offers a more optimistic outlook, forecasting GDP growth for the Land of the White Bear at 1.3 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent next year.

This IMF forecast revision comes amid renewed pressures on the global energy market due to the war between the United States (US) and Israel with Iran, as well as Tehran’s retaliatory attacks across the region.

This conflict has effectively hindered flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a major route contributing to much of the world’s crude oil and natural gas supply.

The IMF also warns that disruptions to crude oil supplies and damage to critical energy infrastructure increase the prospects of a “major energy crisis” if hostilities continue.

“Countries that are highly dependent on energy imports will be ‘very vulnerable’,” the IMF states, as quoted from the Russia Today website. Against this backdrop, the IMF has lowered its global growth forecast.

The world economy is predicted to grow by 3.1 per cent this year, down from the previous 3.4 per cent forecast, before recovering to 3.2 per cent in 2027.

The IMF also forecasts slower economic growth in the US and a weaker US dollar. The Eurozone is in the same boat. The IMF has cut its prospects, stating that this slowdown reflects the “negative impact of the Middle East conflict”.