Illusion and Distortion of the Three Million Homes Dream

Indonesia remains trapped in a chronic housing deficit through the 2025-2026 period. According to the latest data, between 12.57 million and 15 million families lack their own homes, whilst 16.59 million families are forced to inhabit inadequate buildings. Combined, nearly 30 million families face housing vulnerability.

This disparity reflects not a shortage of cement and bricks, but rather the market’s failure to distribute spatial justice equitably. The government’s efforts to close this gap have produced promising schemes, including the utilisation of seized corruption assets and the involvement of new financing institutions such as Danantara.

Conceptually, the Three Million Homes Programme was designed with specific zoning divisions: 2 million units in rural areas through renovation and individual home schemes, and 1 million units of vertical housing in urban areas utilising unused state-owned enterprise land. The “Gentengisation” scheme and transit-oriented development housing also offer fresh approaches to reduce urban transport costs.

However, fundamental problems emerge when examining the state’s fiscal capacity. The fiscal budget appears inadequate compared to the estimated annual operational requirements of Rp 53.6 trillion. A financing gap of Rp 48.33 trillion forces the government to seek shortcuts by partnering with major property developers and relying on banking liquidity injections through long-term loan schemes.

Beyond this, critical evaluation of the Three Million Homes Programme must begin with doubts about synchronisation between supply ambitions and demand realities. The government appears determined to accelerate physical construction, yet seemingly ignores the collapse of public purchasing power, particularly amongst the middle class now squeezed into an awkward position. The phenomena of “Rohana” (groups merely asking questions) and “Rojali” (groups rarely buying) at various property exhibitions are no longer mere social media humour, but valid indicators of domestic economic weakness.

Banking data reveals concerning savings erosion, with the average balance of those holding deposits below Rp 100 million declining from Rp 21 million to Rp 19 million.