IHSG Trims Losses, Nearly Closes in Positive Territory
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia — The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) eroded its correction by the end of trading today, Monday (30/3/2026).
After plummeting nearly 2% at the start of trading, the IHSG closed the second session down 0.05% or -3.25 points at 7,093.81.
A total of 467 stocks fell, 258 rose, and 233 were unchanged. Trading value was only Rp9.89 trillion, involving 15.89 billion shares in 1.19 million transactions.
Citing Refinitiv, Bank Central Asia (BBCA) shares prevented the IHSG from parking in positive territory. From the start to the end of trading, BBCA shares burdened the IHSG with a weight of more than 20 points.
Meanwhile, several conglomerate stocks attempted to lift the IHSG. Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA), which rose 6.62%, contributed 16.28 index points. In addition, an issuer owned by Toto Sugiri contributed 9.42 index points, and Bakrie-owned Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS) contributed 7.47 points.
The IHSG’s performance today can be considered quite good compared to exchanges in the Asian region. Japan’s Nikkei fell 2.79%, Korea’s Kospi -2.97%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -0.81%.
In the current conditions, the room for IHSG upside remains very limited due to the absence of strong positive catalysts from the global side.
The market is essentially waiting for clear signals such as a ceasefire in the Middle East, the reopening of major energy routes like the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices falling back below US$80 per barrel.
As long as these factors have not occurred, the IHSG will tend to struggle for a significant rebound because external pressures still dominate.
The escalation of the conflict is now entering a more complex phase with the emergence of double chokepoint risks.
If previously the market focused only on the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes, attention is now shifting to Bab el-Mandeb after the Houthi group in Yemen became involved in the conflict.
This route is the main Asia-Europe link via the Suez Canal and accounts for about 6-12% of global trade flows. If both routes are disrupted simultaneously, around 25-30% of global oil supply could be affected, increasing global inflation risks and raising the likelihood of recession. In this scenario, oil prices could remain high for longer.
For Indonesia, this situation adds further pressure because high oil prices above the ideal fiscal comfort zone of under US$80 per barrel.
Assuming the state budget uses an oil price of US$70 per barrel, every US$10 increase can widen the deficit by around Rp51.8 trillion.
If oil prices reach US$100 per barrel, additional energy subsidies are estimated to reach Rp236 trillion, while additional revenue is only around Rp81 trillion, potentially adding Rp155 trillion to the deficit. This fiscal pressure ultimately burdens domestic stock market sentiment.
On the other hand, global dynamics are also influenced by the Fed’s policies, which are tasked with maintaining inflation and employment but indirectly also play a role in preserving financial system stability that heavily depends on liquidity.
Meanwhile, the Israeli military stated it is attacking various targets in Iran’s capital, Tehran. The Iranian government also said energy infrastructure was damaged, but Iranian media reported that electricity has been restored in most of Tehran and the nearby city of Karaj.
A university in the central Iranian city of Isfahan was targeted in an attack for the second time this weekend.
On the other hand, Israel stated that a fire at an industrial site in the southern part of the country—caused by an Iranian attack—has been brought under control, several hours after previously reporting a “hazardous materials incident” in the area. Verified photos show a US military jet severely damaged at an airbase in Saudi Arabia.
Previously, Iran’s Parliament Speaker said their forces are “waiting” for the arrival of US ground troops to “rain fire on them,” after the US announcement that around 3,500 troops are in the region along with the USS Tripoli warship.