IHSG Today Shadowed by Iran-Israel Conflict, at Risk of Weakening
JAKARTA - Indonesia’s Composite Stock Index (IHSG) is potentially set to move lower with high volatility in trading on Monday, 2 March 2026. Pressure is coming from the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict, which has also drawn the United States into a maelstrom of geopolitical tensions.
The IHSG is estimated to have potential downside with support and resistance in the 8,150-8,330 range.
Maximilianus Nico Demus, Associate Director of Research and Investment at Pilarmas Investindo Sekuritas, stated that attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran are expected to continue, despite killing Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
He added that in addition to military escalation, markets are also concerned about the stability of global energy distribution, particularly at the Strait of Hormuz. Asia is known to purchase more than 80 per cent of crude oil produced in the Middle East, with approximately 90 per cent of that volume passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude oil prices rose to $72.87 per barrel, whilst WTI crude strengthened to $67.02 per barrel.
“So far the increases remain relatively controlled, but it will not be good for the long term. Some projections suggest oil prices could return to $100 per barrel, which of course could trigger inflation down the line,” Nico said in his daily analysis.
To curb price increases, OPEC+ agreed to accelerate the pace of oil production increases. The organisation will add supply by 206,000 barrels per day in April, or approximately 1.5 times larger than the increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December.
However, the production increase is not considered to fully resolve the problem if the Strait of Hormuz cannot be traversed. In a worst-case scenario, oil prices could surge to $108 per barrel.
Several producer nations, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, have increased exports in recent months. OPEC+ also has the potential to gradually restore production to maintain market balance.
On the other hand, statements by world leaders have further underscored the tensions. United States President Donald Trump stated that massive bombing will continue throughout this week or as long as necessary. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also said attacks against Iran will be intensified in the coming days.
Beyond oil, gold prices also strengthened to $5,278 per ounce, although still below the all-time high of $5,417 per ounce on 28 January 2026. The gold price increase reflects a shift in investor funds towards safe-haven assets.
Nico believes market participants tend to avoid risky assets in such conditions and reallocate portfolios to preserve potential returns. Gold and energy-based equities are considered to have better prospects, whilst bonds also have potential to strengthen as demand for safer instruments increases.