IHSG Today 4 March 2026: Expected to weaken amid global conflict
The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) is projected to move narrowly lower during trading on Wednesday, 4 March 2026, as market participants continue to monitor developments in the Middle East geopolitical crisis. Maximilianus Nico Demus, Associate Director of Research and Investment at Pilarmas Investindo Sekuritas, says that investor concerns about the escalation of the conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel remain the principal sentiment weighing on markets. ‘Based on technical analysis, we see the IHSG today potentially weakening within a range of 7,860–8,150,’ Demus told Jakarta on Wednesday.
The Middle East conflict is still seen as a driver of negative sentiment in global markets. Investors continue to monitor developments that could disrupt global energy stability. US President Donald Trump has reportedly said his administration would provide insurance guarantees and naval escort for tankers and other vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz to prevent disruptions to energy distribution and a potential spike in inflation.
‘The war continues, and in our view, market participants and investors still hold a negative outlook on this, which continues to push global stocks and bonds lower,’ Nico added.
In addition to geopolitical tensions, markets are watching US trade policy. Trump is reportedly preparing new tariffs to replace the tariffs previously struck down by the US Supreme Court. The new tariffs are expected to be slightly higher than those previously agreed with several trading partners under bilateral deals.
Domestically, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) together with the Indonesia Central Securities Depository (KSEI) officially released information on share ownership of listed companies with holdings above 1%. The data will be published monthly on BEI’s official site so that investors can obtain a more accurate reference when making investment decisions. The move is also expected to enhance transparency and strengthen confidence in Indonesia’s capital market.
Meanwhile, the Indonesian Nickel Mining Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will issue a new regulation concerning the Nickel Reference Mineral price (HMA) in March 2026. The regulation will alter the Mineral Reference Price formula (HPM) to take into account other mineral contents such as iron and cobalt. According to APNI, the old formula had the potential to cause losses of up to $6.3 billion in the last two years. While the policy is forecast to be a positive sentiment for upstream nickel miners, higher ore prices could raise input costs for domestic smelting industries.
‘From a market perspective, this policy tends to be a positive sentiment for upstream nickel mining issuers, although the impact may be limited or neutral for players,’ Demus concluded.
The IHSG is projected to remain under pressure on Wednesday (4/3). The IHSG closed down 0.96% to 7,939.77 on Tuesday (3/3/2026). See the impact of Iran’s attack on the US embassy and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Indonesia’s stock market. The IHSG opened higher on Tuesday (3/3) amid market participants continuing to monitor Middle East developments. The IHSG was hammered by 2.65% on 2 March 2026 due to the escalation of the US–Iran conflict, which spiked oil and gold prices. The IHSG is set to fluctuate with a bias toward consolidation this week as geopolitical risks rise. In the past week to 23-27 February 2026, the IHSG had corrected by 0.44%.