IHSG Still Shadowed by Middle East War Risks, Analysts Project Test of 6,800 Level
JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East disrupting global energy distribution routes continue to overshadow movements in the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG). In the worst-case scenario, the index is projected to fall to the 6,800-6,900 level in the short term.
Pressure on the domestic stock market is assessed as not yet fully eased. Capital market analyst and Founder of Republik Investor, Hendra Wardana, stated that the market is currently in a risk-off phase, where global investors tend to avoid risky assets due to rising uncertainty.
According to him, the escalation of conflict in the Middle East is the main factor driving this sentiment shift, especially if it impacts the closure or disruption of strategic routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the world’s main oil distribution arteries.
“The pressure on the IHSG is indeed not yet fully over because the market is in a risk-off phase due to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East that could close the Strait of Hormuz,” Hendra told Kompas.com on Monday evening (30/3/2026).
“If the worst-case scenario occurs, namely the war lasting longer and oil prices rising above $130-150 per barrel, then the risks that emerge are a surge in global inflation, interest rates remaining high for longer, and the rupiah under pressure,” he explained.
In such conditions, the rupiah exchange rate risks facing continued pressure, which could ultimately trigger outflows of foreign funds from the domestic stock market. As a result, the IHSG could weaken again and test the psychological level at 7,000.
Even in the worst-case scenario, the index is estimated to be able to drop deeper to the 6,800-6,900 area. Nevertheless, Hendra assesses that a decline below 7,000 is likely to be temporary only.
“A decline below 7,000 is likely to be temporary because Indonesia’s economy remains relatively stable fundamentally, so the 6,800-6,900 level could become a strong support area for the IHSG in a prolonged geopolitical crisis scenario,” Hendra elaborated.
Amid these global pressures, there are several domestic factors that can act as buffers to the IHSG’s decline. Domestic inflation stability is one of the keys, alongside Bank Indonesia’s (BI) interest rate policy which remains within a controlled corridor.
In addition, potential government spending is expected to maintain people’s purchasing power, so consumption activity continues and supports national economic growth.