IHSG Projected to Remain Volatile, 7,000 Level Becomes Critical Market Area
JAKARTA — The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) is projected to remain volatile during trading on Monday (16 March 2026), following the index’s decline of 3.05 percent to 7,137.212 at the close of trading on Friday.
Hendra Wardana, a capital market analyst and founder of Republik Investor, stated that technically, the IHSG has a support area in the range of 7,000-7,050. This level is regarded as a key defensive position for domestic investors to begin stock accumulation.
“The important support area for the index currently sits between 7,050 and 7,000, which has the potential to become a defensive point for domestic investors to conduct accumulation,” said Hendra when contacted on Sunday evening (15 March 2026).
Nevertheless, from a medium-term perspective, Indonesia’s relatively stable economic fundamentals and the health of the national banking sector are considered the main supporting factors for the market.
According to him, the current index correction could actually open opportunities for investors to accumulate shares gradually, particularly for investors with a long-term investment horizon.
After the Eid holiday period ends and market liquidity returns to normal, the potential for an IHSG rebound could open up alongside the repositioning of institutional investor portfolios.
Furthermore, global dynamics remain the dominant factor influencing market sentiment.
The surge in global crude oil prices, which have once again breached the $100 per barrel level due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has triggered market concerns about the potential for an energy inflation spike.
When energy prices increase, the market begins to anticipate the possibility that global central banks will delay monetary policy easing.
This also affects expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, which was previously estimated to cut interest rates this year.
Beyond external factors, the market is also beginning to account for potential pressure on Indonesia’s fiscal position due to the sharp rise in oil prices.
In the baseline assumptions of the State Budget (APBN), crude oil is priced at approximately $70 per barrel.
When oil prices move significantly above this assumption, the burden of energy subsidies and compensation could increase substantially.
According to fiscal simulations, every $1 increase in crude oil per barrel is estimated to add budget deficit pressure of up to 6.8 trillion rupiah.
If oil prices remain in the $90-100 per barrel range for an extended period, the budget deficit could potentially widen to nearly 4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).