IHSG Likely to Weaken as Markets Eye Iran–US Conflict Escalation and Global Policy

The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) is projected to move under pressure in trading on Wednesday, 4 March, as market participants remain cautious about geopolitical dynamics and the latest global policies. Maximilianus Nico Demus (Nico), Associate Director of Research and Investment at Pilarmas Investindo Sekuritas, said external sentiment remains the dominant factor influencing the domestic market, with particular attention to the risk of escalation between Iran, the United States and Israel. ‘Based on technical analysis, we see the IHSG could weaken with limited downside, with support and resistance at 7,860 and 8,150,’ he said in a Jakarta briefing on Wednesday. Developments in the Middle East are also shaping global risk perception. The US administration under President Donald Trump has said it will provide insurance guarantees and naval escort for oil tankers transiting the Hormuz Strait, intended to safeguard energy distribution and prevent price spikes that could fuel inflation. The ongoing conflict continues to weigh on sentiment, with traders and investors still inclined toward a negative outlook for equities and bonds globally. In addition to geopolitics, Trump indicated that the United States intends to roll out new tariffs as replacements for duties struck down by the Supreme Court, with the new rates expected to be modestly higher than those in the bilateral agreements reached in the past year. Domestically, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) and the Indonesia Central Securities Depository (KSEI) have officially released information on share ownership by companies listed above 1 percent. The data will be updated monthly by KSEI and published on BEI’s official site, expected to serve as an additional reference for investors and to bolster transparency and credibility in the national equity market. Separately, the Indonesian Nickel Mining Association (APNI) announced that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will publish a new ministerial regulation on the Nickel Reference Price (HMA) in March 2026. The reform would adjust the benchmark for nickel ore prices, following APNI’s proposal to ensure the Mineral Price Reference (HPM) formula accounts for iron and cobalt, not just nickel grade. APNI argues the previous framework contributed to losses of up to USD 6.3 billion over the past two years. From a state perspective, the new formula is seen as more effective at boosting royalty receipts, particularly if bycatch minerals such as cobalt carry their own charges. Nonetheless, higher nickel ore prices could raise domestic smelter input costs and compress margins for the processing industry amid global oversupply. ‘Market-wise, this policy tends to be positive for upstream nickel miners, though the impact may be limited or neutral for downstream players,’ Nico commented. Global markets were under pressure, with European equities finishing in the red on Tuesday, led by a 3.64% fall in the Euro Stoxx 50, a 2.75% decline for the FTSE 100, a 3.44% drop for the DAX, and a 3.46% dip for the CAC 40. The gloom extended to Wall Street, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.83%, the S&P 500 fell 0.95%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.09%. With a combination of geopolitical risk, US tariff dynamics, and nickel market movements, the market is expected to remain in a consolidating phase with a bias toward limited downside. Investors are advised to monitor the evolution of the global conflict and policy responses that could affect capital flows and IHSG volatility in the short term.