IHSG Forecast This Week: High Volatility, Energy Sector as Saviour?
JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) is expected to remain under pressure at the beginning of the week or on Monday (30/3/2026), after the index closed weaker by 0.94 percent at 7,097.057 on Friday last week.
Market observer and Founder of Republik Investor, Hendra Wardana, stated that if the conflict in the Middle East heats up again and oil prices rise, the IHSG could potentially test the psychological support level at 7,000 and its resistance at 7,200.
“Overall, the IHSG still has the potential to move volatilely and tend to be sideways with a weakening tendency as long as global uncertainty remains high,” Hendra said when contacted by Kompas.com on Sunday (29/3/2026).
He noted that the heating up of the Middle East conflict as well as the policies of US President Donald Trump, which are again increasing geopolitical tensions, have enveloped global financial markets in uncertainty.
Although there was a temporary delay in attacks on Iran’s energy facilities for ten days, the market remains concerned that the conflict could expand into a ground conflict and disrupt global energy distribution routes.
On the other hand, large-scale demonstrations titled “No Kings” in various cities in the United States also indicate increasing domestic political uncertainty in the US.
This situation is exacerbated by the rise in global oil prices approaching 100 US dollars per barrel.
The rise in oil prices is triggering concerns that global inflation will rise again, so the market is starting to anticipate that global interest rates will remain high for longer or “higher for longer.”
“When interest rates remain high for longer, global fund flows tend to enter bonds and exit the stock market, so it is reasonable if the IHSG and global exchanges tend to move weaker and volatile in the short term,” he explained.
This indicates a sectoral rotation in the market, where investors are starting to shift funds to commodity-based stocks such as energy, coal, and metals.
Hendra views that in situations of war or geopolitical conflict, energy commodity prices usually rise due to concerns over supply disruptions, so energy companies are actually benefited.
Therefore, commodity-based stocks have the potential to become market leaders in the short term amid uncertain market conditions.