IHSG Falls 3% as Market-Wide Pressure Mounts; Analysts' Preferred Stocks Today

Jakarta — The Indonesian Composite Index (IHSG) closed significantly weaker during Monday trading (9 March), falling 3.27% to 7,337.37. The decline occurred amidst broad pressure across nearly all stock sectors.

Despite the IHSG correction, several stocks still posted gains and provided support to the index. These included DCII, which rose 2.44%; SMMA, which strengthened 4.48%; and MORA, which surged 8.85% as leading movers.

Conversely, large-capitalisation stocks became market drags. BBRI fell 2.72%, BYAN corrected 7.06%, and BREN weakened 4.85%, ranking amongst lagging movers.

Notably, foreign investors recorded net purchases of Rp749.85 billion in the regular market and Rp1.11 trillion across all markets. However, this fund flow proved insufficient to stem the overall index decline.

From a sectoral perspective, all stock sectors closed in negative territory. The transportation sector recorded the steepest decline at 5.22%.

Meanwhile, the US stock market moved in the opposite direction to the domestic market. The Dow Jones index rose 0.50% to 47,740, followed by the S&P 500, which strengthened 0.83% to 6,795, and the Nasdaq, which surged 1.38% to 22,695.

Positive sentiment on Wall Street was triggered by US President Donald Trump’s statement suggesting the conflict with Iran could end soon. He also assessed that global oil prices would fall in the near term.

For Indonesian assets in global markets, the Indonesia ETF (EIDO) strengthened 1.17%. However, the MSCI Indonesia index still corrected 3.03%.

From a fundamental perspective, pressure on banking stocks also stemmed from a decision by rating agency Fitch. Fitch downgraded the outlook for three state-owned banks—BMRI, BBRI, and BBNI—and LPEI (Indonesia Eximbank) from “stable” to “negative”. Nevertheless, Fitch maintained the debt rating for these institutions at the long-term level of BBB.

This change in outlook resulted from Fitch’s decision on 4 March, which had previously downgraded Indonesia’s sovereign outlook to negative. This action also followed Moody’s decision the previous month, which had cut the outlook for five major Indonesian banks—BBCA, BMRI, BBNI, BBRI, and BBTN—to negative.

Technically, BMRI and BBRI stocks recorded gap downs and potentially may move towards their respective nearest support levels at around Rp4,730 and Rp3,500.

On another note, Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) decided to distribute a dividend of Rp13.03 trillion at its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders held on 9 February. This amount equals 65% of consolidated net profit attributable to owners of the parent entity for the 2025 financial year of Rp20.40 trillion.

The remaining 35%, or approximately Rp7.01 trillion, will be allocated as retained earnings. With issued shares totalling 37.30 billion, BBNI’s dividend per share (DPS) stands at Rp349.30. This is slightly lower than the previous year’s DPS of Rp374.06 per share.

Stock Recommendations Today from Mega Capital Securities:

CYBR – Buy 1340-1355 | Target Price 1400-1445 | Stop Loss 1265

DEWA – Buy 406-412 | Target Price 420-432 | Stop Loss 380

WIIM – Buy 1990-2010 | Target Price 2050-2100 | Stop Loss 1870

STAA – Buy 1240-1250 | Target Price 1280-1310 | Stop Loss 1160

BUMI – Buy 216-220 | Target Price 226-238 | Stop Loss 202